Are Strong Financial Prospects The Force That Is Driving The Momentum In Oshkosh Corporation's NYSE:OSK) Stock?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 01, 2021
NYSE:OSK

Oshkosh (NYSE:OSK) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 32% over the last three months. Since the market usually pay for a company’s long-term fundamentals, we decided to study the company’s key performance indicators to see if they could be influencing the market. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Oshkosh's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Oshkosh

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Oshkosh is:

11% = US$318m ÷ US$2.9b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2020).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.11 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Oshkosh's Earnings Growth And 11% ROE

At first glance, Oshkosh seems to have a decent ROE. Even when compared to the industry average of 12% the company's ROE looks quite decent. This probably goes some way in explaining Oshkosh's moderate 17% growth over the past five years amongst other factors.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Oshkosh's growth is quite high when compared to the industry average growth of 7.9% in the same period, which is great to see.

past-earnings-growth
NYSE:OSK Past Earnings Growth March 1st 2021

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Has the market priced in the future outlook for OSK? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is Oshkosh Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

In Oshkosh's case, its respectable earnings growth can probably be explained by its low three-year median payout ratio of 16% (or a retention ratio of 84%), which suggests that the company is investing most of its profits to grow its business.

Besides, Oshkosh has been paying dividends over a period of seven years. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 18% of its profits over the next three years. Regardless, the future ROE for Oshkosh is predicted to rise to 15% despite there being not much change expected in its payout ratio.

Conclusion

Overall, we are quite pleased with Oshkosh's performance. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see substantial growth in its earnings. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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