Is Mueller Water Products (NYSE:MWA) A Risky Investment?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
July 14, 2021
NYSE:MWA
Source: Shutterstock

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Mueller Water Products, Inc. (NYSE:MWA) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Mueller Water Products

How Much Debt Does Mueller Water Products Carry?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Mueller Water Products had US$446.9m in debt in March 2021; about the same as the year before. However, it also had US$228.2m in cash, and so its net debt is US$218.7m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NYSE:MWA Debt to Equity History July 14th 2021

How Strong Is Mueller Water Products' Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Mueller Water Products had liabilities of US$160.2m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$606.2m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$228.2m as well as receivables valued at US$190.2m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$348.0m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

Of course, Mueller Water Products has a market capitalization of US$2.38b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 1.1 and interest cover of 5.7 times, it seems to us that Mueller Water Products is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. Sadly, Mueller Water Products's EBIT actually dropped 4.8% in the last year. If earnings continue on that decline then managing that debt will be difficult like delivering hot soup on a unicycle. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Mueller Water Products's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Mueller Water Products recorded free cash flow of 49% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Mueller Water Products was the fact that it seems able handle its debt, based on its EBITDA, confidently. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For example, its EBIT growth rate makes us a little nervous about its debt. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Mueller Water Products's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Mueller Water Products .

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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