It might be of some concern to shareholders to see the Moog Inc. (NYSE:MOG.A) share price down 14% in the last month. On the other hand the share price is higher than it was three years ago. However, it’s unlikely many shareholders are elated with the share price gain of 30% over that time, given the rising market.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Moog was able to grow its EPS at 14% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. The average annual share price increase of 9.2% is actually lower than the EPS growth. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat.
It’s probably worth noting we’ve seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Moog’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Moog, it has a TSR of 33% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
We’re pleased to report that Moog shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 4.2% over one year. That’s including the dividend. That’s better than the annualised return of 3.3% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of Moog by clicking this link.
Moog is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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