Is Johnson Controls (JCI) Quietly Rewiring Its Earnings Mix Through Landfill Gas and Steady Dividends?

• Johnson Controls International’s board has approved a regular quarterly dividend of US$0.40 per share, payable on January 16, 2026, to shareholders of record on December 22, 2025, extending a dividend streak that began in 1887.
• Nopetro Energy, in partnership with Johnson Controls, plans a US$50 million landfill gas-to-renewable natural gas facility on Florida’s west coast, underscoring Johnson Controls’ role in turning engineering expertise into cleaner energy infrastructure and long-term service opportunities.
• We’ll now explore how Johnson Controls’ role in this renewable natural gas project could influence its investment narrative and future earnings mix.

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Johnson Controls International Investment Narrative Recap

To own Johnson Controls International, you need to believe in its ability to convert building and industrial expertise into resilient, higher margin service and energy-transition opportunities. The new quarterly US$0.40 dividend and the Nopetro RNG partnership do not materially change the near term picture, where integration of the new geographic segments remains a key catalyst and execution on Lean, pricing and complexity reduction still looks like the biggest risk.

The most relevant recent announcement here is the Nopetro Energy partnership, where Johnson Controls will design, engineer and provide long term measurement and verification services for a US$50 million landfill gas to renewable natural gas facility. While the project is modest in size versus Johnson Controls’ US$23,596 million revenue base, it fits the push to grow service attachment rates and apply controls and efficiency know how to recurring, decarbonization focused work.

Yet investors should be aware that if Johnson Controls struggles to cut complexity and execute on its Lean and pricing plans, then...

Read the full narrative on Johnson Controls International (it's free!)

Johnson Controls International's narrative projects $27.0 billion revenue and $3.3 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.9% yearly revenue growth and a $1.3 billion earnings increase from $2.0 billion today.

Uncover how Johnson Controls International's forecasts yield a $131.78 fair value, a 15% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$100.71 to US$131.78, showing how widely opinions can differ. As you weigh those views, remember that Johnson Controls’ execution on Lean and pricing improvements could meaningfully influence how its actual performance lines up with any of these estimates.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Johnson Controls International - why the stock might be worth as much as 15% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Johnson Controls International Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Johnson Controls International research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Johnson Controls International research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Johnson Controls International's overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In Johnson Controls International?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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