Is It Time To Consider Buying Johnson Controls International plc (NYSE:JCI)?

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Johnson Controls International plc (NYSE:JCI) received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NYSE over the last few months. With many analysts covering the large-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let’s examine Johnson Controls International’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.

See our latest analysis for Johnson Controls International

What is Johnson Controls International worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my relative valuation model. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Johnson Controls International’s ratio of 14.04x is trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 17.38x, which means if you buy Johnson Controls International today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe Johnson Controls International should be trading in this range, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond where it’s currently trading. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Johnson Controls International’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

Can we expect growth from Johnson Controls International?

NYSE:JCI Past and Future Earnings, February 22nd 2019
NYSE:JCI Past and Future Earnings, February 22nd 2019
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Johnson Controls International, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -14%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? Currently, JCI appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on JCI, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on JCI for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on JCI should the price fluctuate below its true value.

Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Johnson Controls International. You can find everything you need to know about Johnson Controls International in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Johnson Controls International, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.