Should You Be Concerned About Hillenbrand, Inc.’s (NYSE:HI) Historical Volatility?

Anyone researching Hillenbrand, Inc. (NYSE:HI) might want to consider the historical volatility of the share price. Volatility is considered to be a measure of risk in modern finance theory. Investors may think of volatility as falling into two main categories. The first type is company specific volatility. Investors use diversification across uncorrelated stocks to reduce this kind of price volatility across the portfolio. The other type, which cannot be diversified away, is the volatility of the entire market. Every stock in the market is exposed to this volatility, which is linked to the fact that stocks prices are correlated in an efficient market.

Some stocks mimic the volatility of the market quite closely, while others demonstrate muted, exagerrated or uncorrelated price movements. Beta is a widely used metric to measure a stock’s exposure to market risk (volatility). Before we go on, it’s worth noting that Warren Buffett pointed out in his 2014 letter to shareholders that ‘volatility is far from synonymous with risk.’ Having said that, beta can still be rather useful. The first thing to understand about beta is that the beta of the overall market is one. Any stock with a beta of greater than one is considered more volatile than the market, while those with a beta below one are either less volatile or poorly correlated with the market.

View our latest analysis for Hillenbrand

What does HI’s beta value mean to investors?

Given that it has a beta of 1.27, we can surmise that the Hillenbrand share price has been fairly sensitive to market volatility (over the last 5 years). If this beta value holds true in the future, Hillenbrand shares are likely to rise more than the market when the market is going up, but fall faster when the market is going down. Many would argue that beta is useful in position sizing, but fundamental metrics such as revenue and earnings are more important overall. You can see Hillenbrand’s revenue and earnings in the image below.

NYSE:HI Income Statement, April 20th 2019
NYSE:HI Income Statement, April 20th 2019

How does HI’s size impact its beta?

Hillenbrand is a fairly large company. It has a market capitalisation of US$2.7b, which means it is probably on the radar of most investors. It takes deep pocketed investors to influence the share price of a large company, so it’s a little unusual to see companies this size with high beta values. It may be that that this company is more heavily impacted by broader economic factors than most.

What this means for you:

Since Hillenbrand tends to moves up when the market is going up, and down when it’s going down, potential investors may wish to reflect on the overall market, when considering the stock. In order to fully understand whether HI is a good investment for you, we also need to consider important company-specific fundamentals such as Hillenbrand’s financial health and performance track record. I highly recommend you dive deeper by considering the following:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for HI’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for HI’s outlook.
  2. Past Track Record: Has HI been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of HI’s historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other Interesting Stocks: It’s worth checking to see how HI measures up against other companies on valuation. You could start with this free list of prospective options.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.