Is General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) A Risky Investment?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 26, 2022
NYSE:GD
Source: Shutterstock

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for General Dynamics

How Much Debt Does General Dynamics Carry?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that General Dynamics had US$13.7b in debt in October 2021; about the same as the year before. However, it also had US$3.14b in cash, and so its net debt is US$10.5b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NYSE:GD Debt to Equity History January 26th 2022

How Strong Is General Dynamics' Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that General Dynamics had liabilities of US$14.6b due within a year, and liabilities of US$21.0b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$3.14b and US$11.4b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$21.1b.

General Dynamics has a very large market capitalization of US$57.4b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

With a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.0, General Dynamics uses debt artfully but responsibly. And the alluring interest cover (EBIT of 9.8 times interest expense) certainly does not do anything to dispel this impression. General Dynamics grew its EBIT by 5.2% in the last year. Whilst that hardly knocks our socks off it is a positive when it comes to debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if General Dynamics can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, General Dynamics produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 66% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

General Dynamics's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is also very heartening. Looking at all the aforementioned factors together, it strikes us that General Dynamics can handle its debt fairly comfortably. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - General Dynamics has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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