Federal Signal (NYSE:FSS) - Share price, News & Analysis

FSS fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	1/6

FSS Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 58.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 21.4% per year

Earnings have grown 13.8% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

FSS passed our risk checks.

Federal Signal Competitors

Alamo Group

NYSE:ALG

US$1.4b

Shyft Group

NasdaqGS:SHYF

US$798.2m

Douglas Dynamics

NYSE:PLOW

US$685.9m

Miller Industries

NYSE:MLR

US$277.5m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Federal Signal
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$32.71
52 Week High	US$48.88
52 Week Low	US$31.86
Beta	0.98
1 Month Change	-1.83%
3 Month Change	-11.50%
1 Year Change	-23.72%
3 Year Change	32.16%
5 Year Change	103.04%
Change since IPO	365.44%

Recent News & Updates

May 14

Federal Signal (NYSE:FSS) Will Pay A Dividend Of US$0.09

The board of Federal Signal Corporation ( NYSE:FSS ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of US$0.09 per share on...

Apr 30

Federal Signal (NYSE:FSS) Has Announced A Dividend Of US$0.09

The board of Federal Signal Corporation ( NYSE:FSS ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 3rd of June, with...

Shareholder Returns

	FSS	US Machinery	US Market
7D	-3.3%	-2.4%	-2.5%
1Y	-23.7%	-18.2%	-10.4%

Return vs Industry: FSS underperformed the US Machinery industry which returned -18.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: FSS underperformed the US Market which returned -10.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is FSS's price volatile compared to industry and market?
FSS volatility
FSS Average Weekly Movement	4.2%
Machinery Industry Average Movement	5.6%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.7%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: FSS is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: FSS's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1901	3,900	Jennifer Sherman	https://www.federalsignal.com

Federal Signal Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and supplies a suite of products and integrated solutions for municipal, governmental, industrial, and commercial customers in the United States, Canada, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Environmental Solutions Group, and Safety and Security Systems Group. The Environmental Solutions Group segment offers a range of street sweepers, safe-digging trucks ,sewer cleaners, industrial vacuum loaders, vacuum, and hydro-excavation trucks; road-marking, line-removal and waterblasting equipment, dump truck bodies, trailers, and metal extraction support equipment under the Elgin, Vactor, Guzzler, TRUVAC, Westech, Jetstream, Mark Rite Lines, Ox Bodies, Crysteel, J-Craft, Duraclass, Rugby, Travis, OSW, NTE, WTB, Ground Force, Bucks, and Switch-N-Go brand names.

Federal Signal Fundamentals Summary

How do Federal Signal's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
FSS fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$1.98b
Earnings (TTM)	US$98.90m
Revenue (TTM)	US$1.26b

20.0x

P/E Ratio

1.6x

P/S Ratio

Is FSS overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
FSS income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$1.26b
Cost of Revenue	US$969.00m
Gross Profit	US$295.60m
Other Expenses	US$196.70m
Earnings	US$98.90m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.63
Gross Margin	23.37%
Net Profit Margin	7.82%
Debt/Equity Ratio	41.6%

How did FSS perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.1%

Current Dividend Yield

22%

Payout Ratio

Does FSS pay a reliable dividends?

See FSS dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy FSS by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Federal Signal dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	May 19 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Jun 03 2022
Days until Ex dividend	2 days
Days until Dividend pay date	17 days

Does FSS pay a reliable dividends?

See FSS dividend history and benchmarks

Valuation

Is Federal Signal undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: FSS ($32.71) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($79.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FSS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: FSS is good value based on its PE Ratio (20x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (21.5x).

PE vs Market: FSS is poor value based on its PE Ratio (20x) compared to the US market (15.5x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: FSS is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.9x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: FSS is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (2.5x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (2.2x).

Future Growth

How is Federal Signal forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

21.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FSS's forecast earnings growth (21.4% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: FSS's earnings (21.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (12.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: FSS's revenue (7.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FSS's revenue (7.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if FSS's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

Past Performance

How has Federal Signal performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

13.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: FSS has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: FSS's current net profit margins (7.8%) are lower than last year (8.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: FSS's earnings have grown by 13.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: FSS's earnings growth over the past year (4.2%) is below its 5-year average (13.8% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: FSS earnings growth over the past year (4.2%) underperformed the Machinery industry 29.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: FSS's Return on Equity (12.6%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Federal Signal's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: FSS's short term assets ($464.2M) exceed its short term liabilities ($181.5M).

Long Term Liabilities: FSS's short term assets ($464.2M) exceed its long term liabilities ($455.8M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: FSS's net debt to equity ratio (36.6%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: FSS's debt to equity ratio has increased from 16.7% to 41.6% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: FSS's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (25.3%).

Interest Coverage: FSS's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (27.8x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Federal Signal current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

1/6

Dividend Score 1/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.10%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: FSS's dividend (1.1%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.54%).

High Dividend: FSS's dividend (1.1%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.05%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, FSS has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: FSS's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 8 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (22.1%), FSS's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (136.4%), FSS's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Capital Goods industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Jennifer Sherman (56 yo)

6.33yrs

Tenure

US$4,672,213

Compensation

Ms. Jennifer L. Sherman has been the Chief Executive Officer, President and Director of Federal Signal Corporation since January 1, 2016. Ms. Sherman served as the Chief Operating Officer of Federal Signal...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Jennifer's total compensation ($USD4.67M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.45M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Jennifer's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: FSS's management team is considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: FSS's board of directors are considered experienced (8.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: FSS insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/15 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/13 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31