For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it currently lacks a track record of revenue and profit. But the reality is that when a company loses money each year, for long enough, its investors will usually take their share of those losses. Loss making companies can act like a sponge for capital - so investors should be cautious that they're not throwing good money after bad.
In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like Federal Signal (NYSE:FSS), which has not only revenues, but also profits. While profit isn't the sole metric that should be considered when investing, it's worth recognising businesses that can consistently produce it.
How Fast Is Federal Signal Growing?
If you believe that markets are even vaguely efficient, then over the long term you'd expect a company's share price to follow its earnings per share (EPS) outcomes. That means EPS growth is considered a real positive by most successful long-term investors. Shareholders will be happy to know that Federal Signal's EPS has grown 29% each year, compound, over three years. As a general rule, we'd say that if a company can keep up that sort of growth, shareholders will be beaming.
One way to double-check a company's growth is to look at how its revenue, and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins are changing. While we note Federal Signal achieved similar EBIT margins to last year, revenue grew by a solid 9.1% to US$2.0b. That's a real positive.
The chart below shows how the company's bottom and top lines have progressed over time. For finer detail, click on the image.
See our latest analysis for Federal Signal
The trick, as an investor, is to find companies that are going to perform well in the future, not just in the past. While crystal balls don't exist, you can check our visualization of consensus analyst forecasts for Federal Signal's future EPS 100% free.
Are Federal Signal Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?
Investors are always searching for a vote of confidence in the companies they hold and insider buying is one of the key indicators for optimism on the market. That's because insider buying often indicates that those closest to the company have confidence that the share price will perform well. However, small purchases are not always indicative of conviction, and insiders don't always get it right.
Federal Signal top brass are certainly in sync, not having sold any shares, over the last year. But the real excitement comes from the US$103k that President Jennifer Sherman spent buying shares (at an average price of about US$82.32). It seems at least one insider has seen potential in the company's future - and they're willing to put money on the line.
On top of the insider buying, it's good to see that Federal Signal insiders have a valuable investment in the business. Indeed, they have a considerable amount of wealth invested in it, currently valued at US$193m. This suggests that leadership will be very mindful of shareholders' interests when making decisions!
While insiders already own a significant amount of shares, and they have been buying more, the good news for ordinary shareholders does not stop there. That's because on our analysis the CEO, Jennifer Sherman, is paid less than the median for similar sized companies. Our analysis has discovered that the median total compensation for the CEOs of companies like Federal Signal with market caps between US$4.0b and US$12b is about US$8.6m.
The Federal Signal CEO received US$7.6m in compensation for the year ending December 2024. That comes in below the average for similar sized companies and seems pretty reasonable. While the level of CEO compensation shouldn't be the biggest factor in how the company is viewed, modest remuneration is a positive, because it suggests that the board keeps shareholder interests in mind. Generally, arguments can be made that reasonable pay levels attest to good decision-making.
Should You Add Federal Signal To Your Watchlist?
If you believe that share price follows earnings per share you should definitely be delving further into Federal Signal's strong EPS growth. Moreover, the management and board of the company hold a significant stake in the company, with one party adding to this total. So it's fair to say that this stock may well deserve a spot on your watchlist. If you think Federal Signal might suit your style as an investor, you could go straight to its annual report, or you could first check our discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation for the company.
The good news is that Federal Signal is not the only stock with insider buying. Here's a list of small cap, undervalued companies in the US with insider buying in the last three months!
Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Federal Signal might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.