Fly Leasing Limited's (NYSE:FLY) Shares Bounce 31% But Its Business Still Trails The Market

By
Simply Wall St
Published
November 26, 2020
NYSE:FLY

Fly Leasing Limited (NYSE:FLY) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 31% after a shaky period beforehand. Still, the 30-day jump doesn't change the fact that longer term shareholders have seen their stock decimated by the 55% share price drop in the last twelve months.

Although its price has surged higher, Fly Leasing may still be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 2.3x, since almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 20x and even P/E's higher than 39x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.

Recent times haven't been advantageous for Fly Leasing as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to improve at all. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Fly Leasing

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NYSE:FLY Price Based on Past Earnings November 26th 2020
Keen to find out how analysts think Fly Leasing's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

How Is Fly Leasing's Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Fly Leasing would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 34%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the three analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 74% over the next year. That's not great when the rest of the market is expected to grow by 13%.

With this information, we are not surprised that Fly Leasing is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Final Word

Fly Leasing's recent share price jump still sees its P/E sitting firmly flat on the ground. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

As we suspected, our examination of Fly Leasing's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 3 warning signs for Fly Leasing (2 are potentially serious!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a P/E ratio below 20x).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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