Boise Cascade (NYSE:BCC) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of BCC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

BCC ($72.52) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] ($41.55)

BCC fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

BCC Stock Overview

Boise Cascade Company manufactures wood products and distributes building materials in the United States and Canada.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (3.7x) is below the US market (15.7x)

Earnings have grown 60.8% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 40.4% per year for the next 3 years

Unstable dividend track record

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Boise Cascade Competitors

GMS

NYSE:GMS

US$2.3b

Rush Enterprises

NasdaqGS:RUSH.B

US$2.9b

McGrath RentCorp

NasdaqGS:MGRC

US$2.1b

Triton International

NYSE:TRTN

US$4.2b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Boise Cascade
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$72.52
52 Week High	US$85.17
52 Week Low	US$51.30
Beta	1.61
1 Month Change	15.29%
3 Month Change	-8.63%
1 Year Change	29.11%
3 Year Change	139.97%
5 Year Change	151.81%
Change since IPO	177.32%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 03

When Should You Buy Boise Cascade Company (NYSE:BCC)?

While Boise Cascade Company ( NYSE:BCC ) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it led the NYSE...

Jul 29

Boise Cascade Q2 2022 Earnings Preview

Boise Cascade (NYSE:BCC) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Monday, August 1st, after market close. EPS Estimate is $4.71 (-38.2% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $2.16B (-11.5% Y/Y). has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 75% of the time. upward revisions and 0 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 3 upward revisions and 2 downward.

Shareholder Returns

	BCC	US Trade Distributors	US Market
7D	4.9%	5.0%	3.2%
1Y	29.1%	4.8%	-10.1%

Return vs Industry: BCC exceeded the US Trade Distributors industry which returned 2.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BCC exceeded the US Market which returned -11.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BCC's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BCC volatility
BCC Average Weekly Movement	7.8%
Trade Distributors Industry Average Movement	6.8%
Market Average Movement	7.7%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: BCC is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BCC's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2004	6,210	Nate Jorgensen	https://www.bc.com

Boise Cascade Company manufactures wood products and distributes building materials in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments, Wood Products and Building Materials Distribution. The Wood Products segment manufactures laminated veneer lumber and laminated beams used in headers and beams; I-joists for residential and commercial flooring and roofing systems, and other structural applications; structural, appearance, and industrial plywood panels; and ponderosa pine lumber products.

Boise Cascade Fundamentals Summary

How do Boise Cascade's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BCC fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$2.86b
Earnings (TTM)	US$781.49m
Revenue (TTM)	US$8.27b

3.7x

P/E Ratio

0.3x

P/S Ratio

Is BCC overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BCC income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$8.27b
Cost of Revenue	US$6.51b
Gross Profit	US$1.75b
Other Expenses	US$971.54m
Earnings	US$781.49m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	19.81
Gross Margin	21.21%
Net Profit Margin	9.45%
Debt/Equity Ratio	25.2%

How did BCC perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

8.2%

Current Dividend Yield

2%

Payout Ratio

Does BCC pay a reliable dividends?

See BCC dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy BCC by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Boise Cascade dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Aug 31 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Sep 15 2022
Days until Ex dividend	17 days
Days until Dividend pay date	32 days

Does BCC pay a reliable dividends?

See BCC dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is BCC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BCC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for BCC. This is calculated by dividing BCC's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is BCC's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$2.86b

BCC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	2x
PEG Ratio	-0.09x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BCC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

BCC PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for BCC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	11.5x
GMS GMS	8.5x	0.8%	US$2.3b
RUSH.B Rush Enterprises	9.2x	-16.0%	US$2.9b
MGRC McGrath RentCorp	22.1x	11.6%	US$2.1b
TRTN Triton International	6.3x	-5.1%	US$4.2b
BCC Boise Cascade	3.7x	-40.4%	US$2.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BCC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.7x) compared to the peer average (11.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BCC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Trade Distributors Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BCC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.7x) compared to the US Trade Distributors industry average (13.9x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BCC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BCC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	3.7x
Fair PE Ratio	7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BCC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BCC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BCC ($72.52) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($41.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BCC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Boise Cascade forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-40.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BCC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-40.4% per year).

Earnings vs Market: BCC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-40.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BCC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BCC's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-4.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BCC's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-4.5% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if BCC's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Boise Cascade performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

60.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BCC has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: BCC's current net profit margins (9.5%) are higher than last year (7.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BCC's earnings have grown significantly by 60.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: BCC's earnings growth over the past year (34.5%) is below its 5-year average (60.8% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: BCC earnings growth over the past year (34.5%) underperformed the Trade Distributors industry 70.5%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: BCC's Return on Equity (44.3%) is considered outstanding.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Boise Cascade's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BCC's short term assets ($2.4B) exceed its short term liabilities ($769.1M).

Long Term Liabilities: BCC's short term assets ($2.4B) exceed its long term liabilities ($601.1M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BCC has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: BCC's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 71.3% to 25.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: BCC's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (182.4%).

Interest Coverage: BCC's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (51.8x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Boise Cascade current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

8.25%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: BCC's dividend (8.25%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.49%).

High Dividend: BCC's dividend (8.25%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, BCC has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: BCC's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 5 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (2.3%), BCC's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (33.9%), BCC's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Nate Jorgensen (57 yo)

2.42yrs

Tenure

US$5,398,488

Compensation

Mr. Nathan R. Jorgensen, also known as Nate, serves as Chief Executive Officer and Director at Boise Cascade Company since March 06, 2020 and is responsible for overseeing the Wood Products and Building Ma...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Nate's total compensation ($USD5.40M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.64M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Nate's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BCC's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.9 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: BCC's board of directors are considered experienced (7.9 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: BCC insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/12 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31