Today I will be providing a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Arconic Inc (NYSE:ARNC) as an investment opportunity by taking the foreast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today’s value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. Please also note that this article was written in October 2018 so be sure check out the updated calculation by following the link below.
Is ARNC fairly valued?
I use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of varying growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a more stable growth phase. To begin with we have to get estimates of the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount the sum of these cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate.
5-year cash flow forecast
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||$627.00||$687.50||$700.67||$714.08||$727.76|
|Source||Analyst x5||Analyst x4||Est @ 1.92%||Est @ 1.92%||Est @ 1.92%|
|Present Value Discounted @ 10.89%||$565.44||$559.12||$513.88||$472.30||$434.08|
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US$2.5b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.9%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 10.9%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$728m × (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (10.9% – 2.9%) = US$9.4b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = US$9.4b ÷ ( 1 + 10.9%)5 = US$5.6b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$8.2b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding, or the equivalent number if this is a depositary receipt or ADR. This results in an intrinsic value of $16.93. Compared to the current share price of $19.84, the stock is fair value, maybe slightly overvalued and not available at a discount at this time.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with my inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. Because we are looking at Arconic as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 10.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.126. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For ARNC, there are three fundamental factors you should further research:
- Financial Health: Does ARNC have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does ARNC’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of ARNC? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every US stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org.