Stock Analysis

Allegion (NYSE:ALLE) Is Reinvesting At Lower Rates Of Return

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NYSE:ALLE
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Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key financial metrics. One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Allegion (NYSE:ALLE) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for Allegion, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.18 = US$584m ÷ (US$3.9b - US$689m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2022).

Therefore, Allegion has an ROCE of 18%. On its own, that's a standard return, however it's much better than the 14% generated by the Building industry.

Check out the opportunities and risks within the US Building industry.

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NYSE:ALLE Return on Capital Employed November 16th 2022

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Allegion compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report for Allegion.

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

When we looked at the ROCE trend at Allegion, we didn't gain much confidence. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 23% over the last five years. On the other hand, the company has been employing more capital without a corresponding improvement in sales in the last year, which could suggest these investments are longer term plays. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.

Our Take On Allegion's ROCE

Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by Allegion's reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. Although the market must be expecting these trends to improve because the stock has gained 43% over the last five years. But if the trajectory of these underlying trends continue, we think the likelihood of it being a multi-bagger from here isn't high.

If you'd like to know about the risks facing Allegion, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should be aware of.

While Allegion isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Allegion is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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