AerCap Holdings (NYSE:AER): Valuation Check After First Boeing 777-300ERSF Freighter Conversion Delivery

AerCap Holdings (NYSE:AER) just hit a fresh milestone, delivering the first Boeing 777-300ERSF freighter conversion to Fly Meta Leasing. The deal highlights its role in next generation cargo capacity and long term leasing demand.

See our latest analysis for AerCap Holdings.

This delivery lands against a strong backdrop, with a roughly 40.8% year to date share price return and a 5 year total shareholder return of about 229.1%, suggesting momentum is still firmly building.

If this kind of long runway for demand in aviation leasing interests you, it could be worth exploring similar opportunities across aerospace and defense stocks for your watchlist.

Yet with revenue and earnings growth softening even as the stock hovers near analysts’ targets, investors now face a key question: Is AerCap still undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 8.3% Undervalued

With AerCap shares last closing at $135.69 versus a narrative fair value of $148, the valuation debate hinges on what happens to margins and growth.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.4 billion (and earnings per share of $8.89) by about August 2028, down from $2.9 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how a falling profit pool still leads to a higher valuation? The tension between shrinking margins and a richer earnings multiple is striking. Curious which forward assumptions on revenue resilience, capital returns and terminal valuation make that math work? The full narrative unpacks the playbook driving this fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $148 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained OEM delivery ramp ups, or a sharper downcycle in airline finances, could quickly compress lease rates and challenge AerCap's bullish valuation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this AerCap Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own AerCap Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently or prefer to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a tailored view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your AerCap Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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