AerCap Holdings (AER): Evaluating Current Valuation Following Recent Share Price Gains

AerCap Holdings (AER) has recently shown some mixed performance in the market, sparking interest among investors looking to evaluate the stock’s current valuation. Over the past month, shares have risen around 7%.

See our latest analysis for AerCap Holdings.

Zooming out, AerCap Holdings has posted a 36% share price return so far this year and recorded a 1-year total shareholder return of nearly 33%. Recent news has amplified momentum, and the impressive multi-year gains indicate persistent strength in investor sentiment.

If AerCap’s latest move has you scanning for more market leaders, this is a great time to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With AerCap’s shares climbing and analysts projecting more room to run, investors are left to wonder if this growth is fully reflected in the current price, or if there could still be an opportunity to buy before future gains are priced in.

Most Popular Narrative: 11.5% Undervalued

Compared to its last close of $130.99, the most widely followed narrative sees AerCap Holdings as trading below its fair value. This suggests the potential for further upside if expectations are met. The narrative’s valuation is anchored in a thoroughly modeled outlook and considers the company’s changing earnings profile and current industry environment.

Accelerated airline fleet renewal and persistent customer demand for newer, fuel-efficient aircraft (evidenced by high lease extensions, especially for widebodies and new-technology narrowbodies) underpin long-term visibility into future lease revenue streams and higher average lease rate factors.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how analysts back up that bullish target? The narrative relies on shrinking profit margins, changing revenue streams, and a future earnings multiple more commonly seen with high-growth peers. Ready to uncover the bold earnings forecasts and quantitative leaps supporting this provocative price target? Take a closer look at all the moving parts that drive this valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $148 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, renewed aircraft supply could dampen lease rates. In addition, client concentration risks remain, either of which could challenge AerCap’s bullish outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this AerCap Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own AerCap Holdings Narrative

If you have your own perspective or want to dig deeper into the details, you can build a personalized view in under three minutes (Do it your way).

A great starting point for your AerCap Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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