NasdaqGM:BLBD

Stock Analysis Report

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Executive Summary

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally.


Snowflake Analysis

Undervalued with moderate growth potential.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Blue Bird's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: BLBD has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

3.8%

BLBD

1.4%

US Machinery

2.6%

US Market


1 Year Return

-30.2%

BLBD

9.2%

US Machinery

15.4%

US Market

Return vs Industry: BLBD underperformed the US Machinery industry which returned 9.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BLBD underperformed the US Market which returned 15.4% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

BLBDIndustryMarket
7 Day3.8%1.4%2.6%
30 Day-2.1%8.7%6.1%
90 Day1.5%22.3%16.6%
1 Year-30.2%-30.2%11.3%9.2%17.8%15.4%
3 Year-24.4%-24.4%22.6%14.5%43.9%34.7%
5 Year0.6%0.6%68.0%47.8%76.2%57.3%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Blue Bird's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Blue Bird undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: BLBD ($13.01) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($27.98)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BLBD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: BLBD is good value based on its PE Ratio (13.7x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (25x).

PE vs Market: BLBD is good value based on its PE Ratio (13.7x) compared to the US market (18.5x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: BLBD is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.3x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: BLBD has negative assets, so we can't compare its PB Ratio to the US Machinery industry average.


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Blue Bird forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

41.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BLBD's forecast earnings growth (41.1% per year) is above the savings rate (2.2%).

Earnings vs Market: BLBD's earnings (41.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (22.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BLBD's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-9.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BLBD's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-9.6% per year).


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if BLBD's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Blue Bird performed over the past 5 years?

38.7%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BLBD has a large one-off loss of $10.5M impacting its April 4 2020 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: BLBD's current net profit margins (2.4%) are lower than last year (3.4%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BLBD has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 38.7% per year.

Accelerating Growth: BLBD's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: BLBD had negative earnings growth (-26.2%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Machinery industry average (-12.2%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: BLBD's liabilities exceed its assets, so it is difficult to calculate its Return on Equity.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Blue Bird's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BLBD has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering short term liabilities.

Long Term Liabilities: BLBD has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering long term liabilities.


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BLBD has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than a high debt level.

Reducing Debt: BLBD's has negative shareholder equity, so we do not need to check if its debt has reduced over time.

Debt Coverage: BLBD's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (16.2%).

Interest Coverage: BLBD's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (3.9x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Blue Bird current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate BLBD's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate BLBD's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BLBD's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BLBD's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of BLBD's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.7yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Phil Horlock (64 yo)

5.5yrs

Tenure

US$3,491,228

Compensation

Mr. Philip Horlock, also known as Phil, has been the Chief Executive Officer, President and Director of Blue Bird Corporation since February 24, 2015. Mr. Horlock served as the President and Chief Financia ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Phil's total compensation ($USD3.49M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.06M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Phil's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Philip Horlock
President5.5yrsUS$3.49m1.12%
$ 3.9m
Thomas Roberts
Chief Administrative Officer4.75yrsUS$1.18m0.12%
$ 434.7k
Paul Yousif
General Counsel & Corporate Treasurer3.67yrsUS$498.36k0.030%
$ 105.3k
Mark Terry
Chief Commercial Officer4.33yrsUS$1.11m0.010%
$ 36.1k
Jeffery Taylor
Chief Financial Officer0.17yrno datano data
Trey Jenkins
Chief Operating Officer0.67yrno data0.038%
$ 132.0k
Mark Benfield
Executive Director of Profitability & Investor Relationsno datano datano data
Xi Lin
Vice President of Human Resources & External Affairs0.67yrno datano data
Trevor Rudderham
Senior VP of Product Planning & Developmentno datano datano data
Steve Girardin
President & CEO of Micro Bird Inc.no datano datano data

3.7yrs

Average Tenure

54yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: BLBD's management team is considered experienced (3.7 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Philip Horlock
President5.5yrsUS$3.49m1.12%
$ 3.9m
Gurminder Bedi
Independent Director5.5yrsUS$100.00k0.062%
$ 217.6k
Kevin Penn
Independent Chairman of the Board4.17yrsUS$155.00kno data
Alan Schumacher
Independent Director5.5yrsUS$110.00k0.062%
$ 217.6k
Chan Galbato
Independent Directorno dataUS$105.00k0.078%
$ 274.3k
Douglas Grimm
Independent Director3.33yrsUS$100.00k0.030%
$ 104.2k
Connor Wentzell
Independent Director1.75yrsUS$100.00kno data
Kathleen Shaw
Independent Director1.42yrsUS$100.00k0.011%
$ 38.4k

4.2yrs

Average Tenure

58.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: BLBD's board of directors are considered experienced (4.2 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: BLBD insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 2.2%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Blue Bird Corporation's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Blue Bird Corporation
  • Ticker: BLBD
  • Exchange: NasdaqGM
  • Founded: 1927
  • Industry: Construction Machinery and Heavy Trucks
  • Sector: Capital Goods
  • Market Cap: US$351.625m
  • Shares outstanding: 27.03m
  • Website: https://www.blue-bird.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Blue Bird Corporation
  • 3920 Arkwright Road
  • 2nd Floor
  • Macon
  • Georgia
  • 31210
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
BLBDNasdaqGM (Nasdaq Global Market)YesCommon StockUSUSDFeb 2015
4RBDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURFeb 2015

Biography

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The comp ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/08/07 00:30
End of Day Share Price2020/08/06 00:00
Earnings2020/04/04
Annual Earnings2019/09/28


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.