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BLBD

Blue BirdNasdaqGM:BLBD Stock Report

Market Cap

US$604.0m

7D

-5.6%

1Y

33.5%

Updated

27 Nov, 2021

Data

Company Financials +
BLBD fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation3/6
Future Growth4/6
Past Performance3/6
Financial Health1/6
Dividends0/6

BLBD Stock Overview

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally.

Blue Bird Competitors

PACCAR

NasdaqGS:PCAR

US$30.0b

Proterra

NasdaqGS:PTRA

US$2.5b

REV Group

NYSE:REVG

US$1.1b

Lightning eMotors

NYSE:ZEV

US$570.4m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Blue Bird
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$22.14
52 Week HighUS$28.90
52 Week LowUS$15.86
Beta1.23
1 Month Change14.72%
3 Month Change3.51%
1 Year Change33.45%
3 Year Change15.73%
5 Year Change34.59%
Change since IPO131.35%

Recent News & Updates

Nov 24
Capital Allocation Trends At Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD) Aren't Ideal

Capital Allocation Trends At Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD) Aren't Ideal

There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Firstly, we'll want to see a...

Sep 28
Are Investors Undervaluing Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) By 35%?

Are Investors Undervaluing Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) By 35%?

Does the September share price for Blue Bird Corporation ( NASDAQ:BLBD ) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will...

Sep 14

Blue Bird Vs. Lion Electric: Room For Both, But A Contrast In Value

EV bus manufacturers have pulled back from year-to-date highs based on factors that could include valuation concerns, selling by major shareholders, and supply chain disruptions. The legislative backdrop for EV school bus funding is highly positive, although major new funding might not start to fully reach customers until late-2022/2023. I compare Blue Bird with Lion Electric, a newer entrant that is making strides with electric school buses but also other bus/truck types, and a battery plant under construction. There looks to be a notable difference in the risk/reward proposition, for the two companies, at current enterprise values and multiples. I continue to be bullish on Blue Bird. Supply chain disruptions look like a clear case of a temporary headwind -- for Blue Bird, about 21% of unit volume was pushed out of the recent quarter into FY2022.

Shareholder Returns

BLBDUS MachineryUS Market
7D-5.6%-2.3%-2.7%
1Y33.5%16.5%21.3%

Return vs Industry: BLBD exceeded the US Machinery industry which returned 16.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BLBD exceeded the US Market which returned 21.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BLBD's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BLBD volatility
BLBD Average Weekly Movement7.2%
Machinery Industry Average Movement4.8%
Market Average Movement6.0%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.0%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.3%

Stable Share Price: BLBD is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BLBD's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
19271,736Matt Stevensonhttps://www.blue-bird.com

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative fuel applications through its propane-powered, gasoline-powered, compressed natural gas-powered, and electric powered school buses.

Blue Bird Fundamentals Summary

How do Blue Bird's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BLBD fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$603.99m
Earnings (TTM)US$14.04m
Revenue (TTM)US$773.20m

43.0x

P/E Ratio

0.8x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BLBD income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$773.20m
Cost of RevenueUS$684.43m
Gross ProfitUS$88.77m
ExpensesUS$74.73m
EarningsUS$14.04m

Last Reported Earnings

Jul 03, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)0.51
Gross Margin11.48%
Net Profit Margin1.82%
Debt/Equity Ratio-361.3%

How did BLBD perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Blue Bird undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

38.0%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: BLBD ($22.14) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($35.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BLBD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: BLBD is poor value based on its PE Ratio (43x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (30.2x).

PE vs Market: BLBD is poor value based on its PE Ratio (43x) compared to the US market (17.2x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: BLBD is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.5x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: BLBD has negative assets, so we can't compare its PB Ratio to the US Machinery industry average.


Future Growth

How is Blue Bird forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

94.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BLBD's forecast earnings growth (94% per year) is above the savings rate (2%).

Earnings vs Market: BLBD's earnings (94% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BLBD's revenue (14.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (10.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BLBD's revenue (14.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if BLBD's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Past Performance

How has Blue Bird performed over the past 5 years?

10.6%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BLBD has a large one-off loss of $4.7M impacting its July 3 2021 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: BLBD's current net profit margins (1.8%) are higher than last year (1.3%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BLBD's earnings have grown by 10.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: BLBD's earnings growth over the past year (17.2%) exceeds its 5-year average (10.6% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: BLBD earnings growth over the past year (17.2%) underperformed the Machinery industry 32%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: BLBD's liabilities exceed its assets, so it is difficult to calculate its Return on Equity.


Financial Health

How is Blue Bird's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BLBD has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering short term liabilities.

Long Term Liabilities: BLBD has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering long term liabilities.


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BLBD has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than a high debt level.

Reducing Debt: BLBD's has negative shareholder equity, so we do not need to check if its debt has reduced over time.

Debt Coverage: BLBD's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (39.9%).

Interest Coverage: BLBD's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (2.9x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Dividend

What is Blue Bird current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate BLBD's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate BLBD's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BLBD's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BLBD's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of BLBD's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

0.6yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Matt Stevenson (43 yo)

no data

Tenure

Mr. Matthew J. Stevenson, also known as Matt, serves as President at Blue Bird Corporation since July 1, 2021 and also serves as Chief Executive Officer and Director since November 1, 2021. He served as Pr...


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BLBD's management team is not considered experienced ( 0.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

Experienced Board: BLBD's board of directors are considered experienced (5 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Blue Bird Corporation's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Blue Bird Corporation
  • Ticker: BLBD
  • Exchange: NasdaqGM
  • Founded: 1927
  • Industry: Construction Machinery and Heavy Trucks
  • Sector: Capital Goods
  • Market Cap: US$603.988m
  • Shares outstanding: 27.28m
  • Website: https://www.blue-bird.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Blue Bird Corporation
  • 3920 Arkwright Road
  • 2nd Floor
  • Macon
  • Georgia
  • 31210
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/11/27 23:04
End of Day Share Price2021/11/26 00:00
Earnings2021/07/03
Annual Earnings2020/10/03


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.