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BLBD

Blue Bird NasdaqGM:BLBD Stock Report

Last Price

US$11.73

Market Cap

US$375.3m

7D

5.1%

1Y

-50.3%

Updated

06 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
BLBD fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation5/6
Future Growth5/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health2/6
Dividends0/6

BLBD Stock Overview

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally.

Blue Bird Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Blue Bird
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$11.73
52 Week HighUS$25.87
52 Week LowUS$8.41
Beta1.16
1 Month Change26.54%
3 Month Change-24.23%
1 Year Change-50.32%
3 Year Change-37.04%
5 Year Change-31.80%
Change since IPO22.57%

Recent News & Updates

Shareholder Returns

BLBDUS MachineryUS Market
7D5.1%-0.6%1.0%
1Y-50.3%-12.9%-12.9%

Return vs Industry: BLBD underperformed the US Machinery industry which returned -12.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BLBD underperformed the US Market which returned -12.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BLBD's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BLBD volatility
BLBD Average Weekly Movement8.2%
Machinery Industry Average Movement6.0%
Market Average Movement7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market17.1%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: BLBD is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BLBD's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
19271,746Matt Stevensonhttps://www.blue-bird.com

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative fuel applications through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses.

Blue Bird Fundamentals Summary

How do Blue Bird's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BLBD fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$375.25m
Earnings (TTM)-US$14.28m
Revenue (TTM)US$725.75m

0.5x

P/S Ratio

-26.3x

P/E Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BLBD income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$725.75m
Cost of RevenueUS$665.86m
Gross ProfitUS$59.89m
Other ExpensesUS$74.17m
Earnings-US$14.28m

Last Reported Earnings

Apr 02, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 10, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)-0.45
Gross Margin8.25%
Net Profit Margin-1.97%
Debt/Equity Ratio569.8%

How did BLBD perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is BLBD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BLBD?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

BLBD key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA81.1x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does BLBD's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

BLBD PS Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PS ratio for BLBD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.7x
MTW Manitowoc Company
0.2x5.1%US$397.3m
ZEV Lightning eMotors
14.5x71.7%US$316.6m
XOS Xos
27.9x83.4%US$314.6m
MLR Miller Industries
0.3xn/aUS$260.3m
BLBD Blue Bird
0.5x20.8%US$375.3m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: BLBD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the peer average (10.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BLBD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Machinery Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: BLBD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (1.5x)


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BLBD's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BLBD PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.5x
Fair PS Ratio0.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: BLBD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BLBD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BLBD ($11.73) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($99.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BLBD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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Future Growth

How is Blue Bird forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


81.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BLBD is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: BLBD is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: BLBD is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BLBD's revenue (20.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BLBD's revenue (20.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if BLBD's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


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Past Performance

How has Blue Bird performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


-22.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BLBD is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: BLBD is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BLBD is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 22.7% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare BLBD's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: BLBD is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Machinery industry (10.2%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: BLBD has a negative Return on Equity (-51.8%), as it is currently unprofitable.


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Financial Health

How is Blue Bird's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BLBD's short term assets ($194.6M) exceed its short term liabilities ($168.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: BLBD's short term assets ($194.6M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($201.4M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BLBD's net debt to equity ratio (515.9%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: BLBD had negative shareholder equity 5 years ago, but is now positive and has therefore improved.

Debt Coverage: BLBD's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if BLBD's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Blue Bird current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate BLBD's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate BLBD's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BLBD's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BLBD's dividend payments have been increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as BLBD has not reported any payouts.


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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

0.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Matt Stevenson (43 yo)

1.08yrs

Tenure

Mr. Matthew J. Stevenson, also known as Matt, serves as President at Blue Bird Corporation since July 1, 2021 and also serves as Chief Executive Officer and Director since November 1, 2021. He served as Pr...


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BLBD's management team is not considered experienced ( 0.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

Experienced Board: BLBD's board of directors are considered experienced (5.8 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 17.8%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Blue Bird Corporation's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Blue Bird Corporation
  • Ticker: BLBD
  • Exchange: NasdaqGM
  • Founded: 1927
  • Industry: Construction Machinery and Heavy Trucks
  • Sector: Capital Goods
  • Implied Market Cap: US$375.253m
  • Shares outstanding: 31.99m
  • Website: https://www.blue-bird.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Blue Bird Corporation
  • 3920 Arkwright Road
  • 2nd Floor
  • Macon
  • Georgia
  • 31210
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/06 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings2022/04/02
Annual Earnings2021/10/02


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.