We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next five years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available I have extrapolated the most recent reported free cash flow (FCF) based on the average annual revenue growth over the past five years. The sum of these cash flows is then discounted to today’s value.
5-year cash flow forecast
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||$14.55||$14.48||$14.42||$14.35||$14.28|
|Source||Extrapolated @ (-0.48%)||Extrapolated @ (-0.48%)||Extrapolated @ (-0.48%)||Extrapolated @ (-0.48%)||Extrapolated @ (-0.48%)|
|Present Value Discounted @ 10.08%||$13.22||$11.95||$10.81||$9.77||$8.83|
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $55
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.5%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 10.1%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2021 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = $14 × (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (10.1% – 2.5%) = $192
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = $192 / ( 1 + 10.1%)5 = $119
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is $174. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) or ADR then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of $17.71, which, compared to the current share price of $9.2, we find that ASV Holdings is quite undervalued at a 48.04% discount to what it is available for right now.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at ASV Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 10.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.011. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For ASV, I’ve compiled three fundamental factors you should further examine:
1. Financial Health: Does ASV have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
2. Future Earnings: How does ASV’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of ASV? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the NASDAQ every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.