Should You Be Tempted To Buy American Railcar Industries Inc (NASDAQ:ARII) At Its Current PE Ratio?

This article is intended for those of you who are at the beginning of your investing journey and want to start learning about core concepts of fundamental analysis on practical examples from today’s market.

American Railcar Industries Inc (NASDAQ:ARII) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 6.1, which is lower than the industry average of 21.8. While this makes ARII appear like a good stock to buy, you might change your mind after I explain the assumptions behind the P/E ratio. Today, I will break down what the P/E ratio is, how to interpret it and what to watch out for.

See our latest analysis for American Railcar Industries

Breaking down the P/E ratio

NasdaqGS:ARII PE PEG Gauge October 11th 18
NasdaqGS:ARII PE PEG Gauge October 11th 18

P/E is often used for relative valuation since earnings power is a chief driver of investment value. It compares a stock’s price per share to the stock’s earnings per share. A more intuitive way of understanding the P/E ratio is to think of it as how much investors are paying for each dollar of the company’s earnings.

Formula

Price-Earnings Ratio = Price per share ÷ Earnings per share

P/E Calculation for ARII

Price per share = $45.44

Earnings per share = $7.488

∴ Price-Earnings Ratio = $45.44 ÷ $7.488 = 6.1x

The P/E ratio isn’t a metric you view in isolation and only becomes useful when you compare it against other similar companies. Ultimately, our goal is to compare the stock’s P/E ratio to the average of companies that have similar attributes to ARII, such as company lifetime and products sold. A common peer group is companies that exist in the same industry, which is what I use below. Since similar companies should technically have similar P/E ratios, we can very quickly come to some conclusions about the stock if the ratios differ.

At 6.1, ARII’s P/E is lower than its industry peers (21.8). This implies that investors are undervaluing each dollar of ARII’s earnings. This multiple is a median of profitable companies of 24 Machinery companies in US including Eco Energy Tech Asia, EnPro Industries and Hebron Technology. One could put it like this: the market is pricing ARII as if it is a weaker company than the average company in its industry.

A few caveats

However, there are two important assumptions you should be aware of. The first is that our “similar companies” are actually similar to ARII. If the companies aren’t similar, the difference in P/E might be a result of other factors. For example, if you are inadvertently comparing lower risk firms with ARII, then ARII’s P/E would naturally be lower than its peers, since investors would value those with lower risk with a higher price. The other possibility is if you were accidentally comparing higher growth firms with ARII. In this case, ARII’s P/E would be lower since investors would also reward its peers’ higher growth with a higher price. The second assumption that must hold true is that the stocks we are comparing ARII to are fairly valued by the market. If this does not hold, there is a possibility that ARII’s P/E is lower because firms in our peer group are being overvalued by the market.

NasdaqGS:ARII Future Profit October 11th 18
NasdaqGS:ARII Future Profit October 11th 18

What this means for you:

You may have already conducted fundamental analysis on the stock as a shareholder, so its current undervaluation could signal a good buying opportunity to increase your exposure to ARII. Now that you understand the ins and outs of the PE metric, you should know to bear in mind its limitations before you make an investment decision. Remember that basing your investment decision off one metric alone is certainly not sufficient. There are many things I have not taken into account in this article and the PE ratio is very one-dimensional. If you have not done so already, I urge you to complete your research by taking a look at the following:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for ARII’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for ARII’s outlook.
  2. Past Track Record: Has ARII been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of ARII’s historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.