Stock Analysis

New York Community Bancorp (NYSE:NYCB) investors are sitting on a loss of 69% if they invested three years ago

NYSE:FLG
Source: Shutterstock

If you are building a properly diversified stock portfolio, the chances are some of your picks will perform badly. Long term New York Community Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:NYCB) shareholders know that all too well, since the share price is down considerably over three years. So they might be feeling emotional about the 74% share price collapse, in that time. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 72% in a year. Furthermore, it's down 18% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.

Check out our latest analysis for New York Community Bancorp

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

New York Community Bancorp saw its share price decline over the three years in which its EPS also dropped, falling to a loss. This was, in part, due to extraordinary items impacting earnings. Due to the loss, it's not easy to use EPS as a reliable guide to the business. But it's safe to say we'd generally expect the share price to be lower as a result!

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:NYCB Earnings Per Share Growth June 11th 2024

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free interactive report on New York Community Bancorp's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of New York Community Bancorp, it has a TSR of -69% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Investors in New York Community Bancorp had a tough year, with a total loss of 71% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 23%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 9% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with New York Community Bancorp .

New York Community Bancorp is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

New: AI Stock Screener & Alerts

Our new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.

• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)
• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying
• High growth Tech and AI Companies

Or build your own from over 50 metrics.

Explore Now for Free

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About NYSE:FLG

Flagstar Financial

Operates as the bank holding company for Flagstar Bank, N.A.

High growth potential with adequate balance sheet.

Community Narratives

Priced for AI perfection - cracks are emerging
Fair Value US$90.15|42.74% overvalued
ChadWisperer
ChadWisperer
Community Contributor
NVDA Market Outlook
Fair Value US$341.12|62.277% undervalued
NateF
NateF
Community Contributor
Karoon Energy (ASX:KAR) - Buy Baby Buy 🚀
Fair Value AU$5.10|70.294% undervalued
StockMan
StockMan
Community Contributor