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KEY

KeyCorp NYSE:KEY Stock Report

Last Price

US$16.42

Market Cap

US$15.3b

7D

-7.2%

1Y

-22.3%

Updated

23 Sep, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
KEY fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation5/6
Future Growth1/6
Past Performance2/6
Financial Health6/6
Dividends6/6

KEY Stock Overview

KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States.

KeyCorp Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for KeyCorp
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$16.42
52 Week HighUS$27.17
52 Week LowUS$16.10
Beta1.31
1 Month Change-12.43%
3 Month Change-7.91%
1 Year Change-22.33%
3 Year Change-8.06%
5 Year Change-12.75%
Change since IPO89.01%

Recent News & Updates

Sep 06

KeyCorp: Undervalued With A Good Dividend

Summary KeyCorp has generated strong revenue growth over the past few years, the decline in 2022 notwithstanding. Expenses are very well managed, through good growth and bad. The stock is relatively undervalued, compared to its peers, and the dividend provides a nice extra kicker for investors. The fifth installment of my regional bank analysis covers KeyCorp (KEY), a Cleveland, Ohio-based bank holding company with $187 billion in assets (Q2) and branches in 15 states across the northeast, upper Midwest and Western portions of the United States. An interesting point about the company's geographic footprint is that in the 1970s and 1980s, there was a concerted effort to prevent the banks based in New York, where the company was at the time, from acquiring New England-based banks. To counter that effort, the company's CEO at the time, Victor Riley, looked to the West. Correctly anticipating that the Asian trade would continue to pick up and the western states' economies would strengthen, the bank went on a shopping spree. It bought western banks, which were cheaper than those in the East. Furthermore, the bank focused on low population areas, while other banks focused on larger cities. By doing so, the bank avoided the pricing wars that were typical of more competitive markets. KeyCorp While the company's headquarters remained in Albany, the bank was expensive to manage across such a wide region. However, one benefit of picking up smaller banks in rural regions was that personnel usually stayed with the acquired banks, which helped maintain strong customer relationships. This relatively conservative mindset served the company well as it continued to thrive in the 1990s, even through the thrift crisis. The company became much more acquisitive under the helm of Robert Gillespie. His actions in the 1990s and early 2000s established the basis for the regional banking powerhouse that KeyCorp is today. Income Statement KEY has a very strong history of generating solid revenue growth. Even during the shutdown of 2020, the company still managed to increase revenues 5%. Looking at the bigger picture, the company has produced non-interest revenue growth of 9.1% annually over the past five years. Growth has been led by investment banking and the cards/payments business. One thing to point out here is that while the majority of the bank's revenue is from net interest income, this bank has much more revenue from non-traditional banking businesses than its peers. Over the past five years, non-interest revenues averaged 40% of total net revenues. Coming off the quarantined year of 2020, the company managed 20% growth in non-interest revenues. All segments produced very strong growth. 2022, however, has been somewhat of a disappointment, with a year-to-date decline in non-interest revenues of 8.3%. Investment banking, cards/payments, and mortgages all led the decline with heavy double-digit decreases. KEY Revenue (Annual) data by YCharts Net interest income growth has been very strong as well, with the company posting 6.9% five-year CAGR. Growth in net interest income in the first six months of this year has been the sole bright spot, with year-over-year growth of 4.4%. Overall, net revenues have increased 7.8% annually over the past five years, with 8.7% growth in 2021. Net revenues posted a 1% decrease in 2022 compared to the first half of last year. KEY Net Interest Income (Annual) data by YCharts Similar to the other regional banks I have reviewed, the activity surrounding the provision for credit losses is interesting. For the full year 2021, the company reported a benefit of $418 million, the first benefit from loan losses since at least 2012. At the time, the company said the benefit was due to "improvements in the economic outlook and asset quality as well as lower net charge-offs." For the first six months of 2022, the company has recorded a provision of $128 million. The company has indicated that the increase in the provision is due to "the impact of a reserve release in each respective year-ago period as uncertainty by the pandemic subsided", which is somewhat different from comments made by the peer group. Reading between the lines, the future is not going to look as good as it did coming out of the pandemic in 2021. As I have stated before, investors need to watch this line carefully, as well as what management says about future credit losses as the economic outlook is generally regarded to be somewhat shaky over the near term. On the expense side, the company has historically been very consistent with non-interest expenses. Compensation is the largest expense category for financial firms. At KEY, the compensation expense ratio has averaged 0.36 over the past five years, with 2021 coming in at 0.35. Through the first half of 2022, the ratio was 0.356, in line with the historical average. The efficiency ratio, a measure of overall expenses, has averaged 0.62 over the past five years, with 2021 finishing at 0.61. Through the first six months of this year, the efficiency ratio was 0.618, slightly above the first six months of 2021. Computer processing expenses were the driver of the higher spend in the first half of 2022, which is similar to comments from some of the competitors. The historical numbers are very steady, probably the most consistent of any of the banks I have looked at so far. That should give investors comfort that management is capable of maintaining solid expense control, despite the strong revenue growth over the past few years, and into a downturn in revenues this year. The bottom-line net income numbers have been really strong for KEY. Operating margins have averaged 33% over the past five years, with 2021 coming in at 45%; however, the company did have that loan loss benefit mentioned above. Operating margin for the first half of this year was 34.5%, compared to 47.8% last year, due to the loan loss benefit. Five-year net income for common stockholders has increased at 27.3% annually which is huge. EPS has increased at a similar 26.9% annually over the past five years. However, in the first half of 2022, net income decreased 28% to $928 million, while EPS decreased 26% to $0.99 per share. KEY Net Income (Annual) data by YCharts Balance Sheet Looking at the balance sheet, total assets have increased 6.4% annually over the five-year period ending in 2021. Over this same period, loan growth has increased 3.4% annually, which is decent, but not great. Total liabilities have outpaced asset growth, though, with a 6.9% annual growth over the five-year period. Deposits have been strong, with a 7.9% annual growth rate over this time frame. Total assets reported at the end of Q2 2022 were $187 billion, about flat with year-end 2021. Unlike some of its peers, long-term debt is basically flat from where it was five years ago, ending 2021 at $12 billion. And in the first six months of 2022, long-term debt increased to $16.6 billion. Management noted the increase reflects the use of both short and long-term borrowings to fund balance sheet growth. Finally, equity has increased 2.7% annually, with common equity and tangible common equity increasing 2.7% and 3.4%, respectively, over the past five years. The company has generally been an aggressive buyer of its outstanding shares, with the latest share repurchase authorization dated July 2021. At the time, the Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to $1.5 billion of common shares through Q3 2022. The company has about $746 million remaining under this authorization, as of the end of Q2. KEY Total Assets (Annual) data by YCharts Ratios Return on equity averaged 9.3% in the years prior to the 2020 pandemic. After falling in 2020, ROE rebounded to 14.8% in 2021, which was the highest since 2012. At the end of Q2, ROE was 12.3% (annualized) due to reduced net income in the first half of the year. Return on common equity has followed the same trend, declining into the pandemic, but then rebounding to 15.9% in 2021. At the end of Q2, ROCE was 13.2% (annualized). Debt to equity has been choppy over the past few years, peaking at 1.0 in 2017, then declining, increasing and declining again to 0.72 at the end of 2021. On the other hand, debt to total assets has steadily decreased from 0.11 in 2017 to 0.07 in 2021. Interest coverage ratios are strong, with 2021 reporting a 12.0x interest figure, well above the historical range. As interest rates continue to rise, this will be something that bears watching to ensure the company maintains adequate interest coverage. KEY Debt to Equity Ratio data by YCharts Loan Quality In terms of loan quality, the company maintains excellent credit. Net charge offs in 2021 were just 0.18% of loans. Stock Performance and Valuation KEY is another good, quality regional bank. As with many stocks, the price has faced some dramatic headwinds over the past year: KEY data by YCharts

Shareholder Returns

KEYUS BanksUS Market
7D-7.2%-5.8%-5.2%
1Y-22.3%-21.7%-23.1%

Return vs Industry: KEY underperformed the US Banks industry which returned -19.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: KEY matched the US Market which returned -21.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is KEY's price volatile compared to industry and market?
KEY volatility
KEY Average Weekly Movement4.4%
Banks Industry Average Movement3.4%
Market Average Movement6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.8%

Stable Share Price: KEY is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: KEY's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
184917,262Chris Gormanhttps://www.key.com

KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. The company offers various deposits, investment products and services; and personal finance and financial wellness, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity, lending, credit card, treasury, business advisory, wealth management, asset management, investment, cash management, portfolio management, and trust and related services to individuals and small and medium-sized businesses.

KeyCorp Fundamentals Summary

How do KeyCorp's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
KEY fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$15.31b
Earnings (TTM)US$2.14b
Revenue (TTM)US$7.21b

7.2x

P/E Ratio

1.2x

P/B Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
KEY income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$7.21b
Cost of RevenueUS$0
Gross ProfitUS$7.21b
Other ExpensesUS$5.06b
EarningsUS$2.14b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Oct 20, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)2.30
Gross Margin100.00%
Net Profit Margin29.72%
Debt/Equity Ratio163.5%

How did KEY perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.8%

Current Dividend Yield

33%

Payout Ratio
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is KEY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for KEY?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

KEY key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio2.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does KEY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

KEY PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for KEY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12x
CFG Citizens Financial Group
9.9x8.4%US$17.1b
RF Regions Financial
9.2x1.4%US$19.5b
FCNC.A First Citizens BancShares
17.5x18.5%US$12.8b
HBAN Huntington Bancshares
11.5x3.1%US$19.0b
KEY KeyCorp
7.2x3.4%US$15.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: KEY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the peer average (12x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does KEY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: KEY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the US Banks industry average (9.8x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is KEY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

KEY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.2x
Fair PE Ratio13.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: KEY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of KEY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: KEY ($16.42) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($41.34)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KEY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is KeyCorp forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 15 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


3.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: KEY's forecast earnings growth (3.4% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: KEY's earnings (3.4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: KEY's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: KEY's revenue (3.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: KEY's revenue (3.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: KEY's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.9%).


Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has KeyCorp performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


12.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: KEY has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: KEY's current net profit margins (29.7%) are lower than last year (31.2%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: KEY's earnings have grown by 12.3% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: KEY's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: KEY had negative earnings growth (-4.2%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Banks industry average (8.6%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: KEY's Return on Equity (15.6%) is considered low.


Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is KeyCorp's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

  • Asset Level

  • Allowance for Bad Loans

  • Low Risk Liabilities

  • Loan Level

  • Low Risk Deposits

  • Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis


Debt to Equity History and Analysis


Balance Sheet


Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: KEY's Assets to Equity ratio (13x) is moderate.

Allowance for Bad Loans: KEY has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (242%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 85% of KEY's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: KEY has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (60%).

Low Risk Deposits: KEY's Loans to Deposits ratio (76%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: KEY has an appropriate level of bad loans (0.4%).


Discover healthy companies

Dividend

What is KeyCorp current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

6/6

Dividend Score 6/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Future Dividend Coverage


4.75%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: KEY's dividend (4.75%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.62%).

High Dividend: KEY's dividend (4.75%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.45%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: KEY's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: KEY's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (33.4%), KEY's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: KEY's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (38.1% payout ratio).


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

7.3yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Chris Gorman (61 yo)

3yrs

Tenure

US$8,653,484

Compensation

Mr. Christopher Marrott Gorman, also known as Chris, has been Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at KeyCorp since May 01, 2020 and serves as its Director since September 19, 2019. He served as its Chief...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Chris's total compensation ($USD8.65M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD13.05M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Chris's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: KEY's management team is seasoned and experienced (7.3 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: KEY's board of directors are considered experienced (9.3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: KEY insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

NYSE:KEY Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
DateValueNameEntityRoleSharesMax Price
14 Sep 22SellUS$91,468Carlton HighsmithIndividual5,200US$17.59
07 Mar 22SellUS$122,575Carlton HighsmithIndividual5,362US$22.86
28 Feb 22SellUS$238,874James WarderIndividual9,632US$24.80
09 Nov 21SellUS$220,573Douglas SchosserIndividual9,301US$23.72
22 Oct 21SellUS$281,358Amy BradyIndividual11,636US$24.18

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 59.1% of the company
OwnershipNameSharesCurrent ValueChange %Portfolio %
11.6%
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
108,202,955$1.8b-2.7%0.04%
9.74%
Capital Research and Management Company
90,796,133$1.5b-0.01%0.1%
8.86%
BlackRock, Inc.
82,593,475$1.4b-1.18%0.03%
5.23%
State Street Global Advisors, Inc.
48,802,135$801.3m-5.98%0.05%
3.4%
Boston Partners Global Investors, Inc.
31,739,477$521.2m-0.53%0.44%
2.03%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
18,937,100$310.9m2.26%0.04%
1.73%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
16,155,012$265.3m6.79%0.07%
1.46%
Federated Hermes, Inc.
13,608,794$223.5m65.91%0.69%
1.31%
First Trust Advisors LP
12,197,305$200.3m3.45%0.23%
1.18%
LSV Asset Management
10,998,413$180.6m1.28%0.37%
1.13%
Northern Trust Global Investments
10,549,879$173.2m-1.77%0.04%
1.11%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
10,389,452$170.6m1.54%0.04%
1.02%
Invesco Capital Management LLC
9,549,499$156.8m3.59%0.12%
0.99%
City National Rochdale, LLC
9,248,520$151.9m15.16%0.61%
0.97%
Eaton Vance Management
9,091,191$149.3m-13.24%0.06%
0.91%
BNY Mellon Asset Management
8,509,042$139.7m8.32%0.03%
0.84%
Norges Bank Investment Management
7,852,737$128.9m0%0.02%
0.84%
UBS Asset Management
7,820,494$128.4m-10.96%0.02%
0.78%
Managed Account Advisors LLC
7,269,643$119.4m32.34%0.03%
0.76%
Massachusetts Financial Services Company
7,125,536$117.0m2.97%0.03%
0.74%
Legal & General Investment Management Limited
6,906,639$113.4m0.67%0.03%
0.73%
Fuller & Thaler Asset Management, Inc.
6,830,083$112.1m338.84%0.8%
0.6%
EARNEST Partners, LLC
5,601,992$92.0m14.98%0.6%
0.56%
Victory Capital Management Inc.
5,244,905$86.1m-12.53%0.1%
0.56%
Hamlin Capital Management, LLC
5,176,395$85.0m6.07%3.47%

Company Information

KeyCorp's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: KeyCorp
  • Ticker: KEY
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1849
  • Industry: Regional Banks
  • Sector: Banks
  • Implied Market Cap: US$15.314b
  • Shares outstanding: 932.66m
  • Website: https://www.key.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • KeyCorp
  • 127 Public Square
  • Cleveland
  • Ohio
  • 44114-1306
  • United States


Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
KEYNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon SharesUSUSDJan 1980
KEYDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon SharesDEEURJan 1980
0JQRLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon SharesGBUSDJan 1980
KEY1 *BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)YesCommon SharesMXMXNJan 1980
KEY.PRINYSE (New York Stock Exchange)DEP SHS 1/40 EUSUSDDec 2016
KEY.PRJNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)DEP SHS PFD FUSUSDJul 2018
KEY.PRKNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)DP SHS PFD GUSUSDApr 2019
K1EY34BOVESPA (Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo)BDR EACH REPR 1 COMBRBRLDec 2019
KEY.PRLNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)6.2% DP SH PFD HUSUSDAug 2022

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/09/23 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/09/23 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.