What Kind Of Share Price Volatility Should You Expect For Flagstar Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:FBC)?

If you’re interested in Flagstar Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:FBC), then you might want to consider its beta (a measure of share price volatility) in order to understand how the stock could impact your portfolio. Volatility is considered to be a measure of risk in modern finance theory. Investors may think of volatility as falling into two main categories. First, we have company specific volatility, which is the price gyrations of an individual stock. Holding at least 8 stocks can reduce this kind of risk across a portfolio. The other type, which cannot be diversified away, is the volatility of the entire market. Every stock in the market is exposed to this volatility, which is linked to the fact that stocks prices are correlated in an efficient market.

Some stocks are more sensitive to general market forces than others. Beta can be a useful tool to understand how much a stock is influenced by market risk (volatility). However, Warren Buffett said ‘volatility is far from synonymous with risk’ in his 2014 letter to investors. So, while useful, beta is not the only metric to consider. To use beta as an investor, you must first understand that the overall market has a beta of one. A stock with a beta below one is either less volatile than the market, or more volatile but not corellated with the overall market. In comparison a stock with a beta of over one tends to be move in a similar direction to the market in the long term, but with greater changes in price.

See our latest analysis for Flagstar Bancorp

What we can learn from FBC’s beta value

Looking at the last five years, Flagstar Bancorp has a beta of 1.27. The fact that this is well above 1 indicates that its share price movements have shown sensitivity to overall market volatility. If the past is any guide, we would expect that Flagstar Bancorp shares will rise quicker than the markets in times of optimism, but fall faster in times of pessimism. Many would argue that beta is useful in position sizing, but fundamental metrics such as revenue and earnings are more important overall. You can see Flagstar Bancorp’s revenue and earnings in the image below.

NYSE:FBC Income Statement, February 17th 2020
NYSE:FBC Income Statement, February 17th 2020

Could FBC’s size cause it to be more volatile?

Flagstar Bancorp is a reasonably big company, with a market capitalisation of US$2.0b. Most companies this size are actively traded with decent volumes of shares changing hands each day. It has a relatively high beta, suggesting it may be somehow leveraged to macroeconomic conditions. For example, it might be a high growth stock with lots of investors trading the shares. It’s notable when large companies to have high beta values, because it usually takes substantial capital flows to move their share prices.

What this means for you:

Since Flagstar Bancorp has a reasonably high beta, it’s worth considering why it is so heavily influenced by broader market sentiment. For example, it might be a high growth stock or have a lot of operating leverage in its business model. In order to fully understand whether FBC is a good investment for you, we also need to consider important company-specific fundamentals such as Flagstar Bancorp’s financial health and performance track record. I urge you to continue your research by taking a look at the following:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for FBC’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for FBC’s outlook.
  2. Past Track Record: Has FBC been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of FBC’s historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other Interesting Stocks: It’s worth checking to see how FBC measures up against other companies on valuation. You could start with this free list of prospective options.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

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