Comerica Incorporated Just Recorded A 7.1% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:CMA) came out with its first-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$829m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Comerica surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.25 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Comerica's 17 analysts is for revenues of US$3.38b in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 4.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 2.2% to US$5.25 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.25 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Comerica

The consensus price target fell 8.6% to US$60.30, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the quarterly results. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Comerica, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$80.00 and the most bearish at US$50.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Comerica's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 6.3% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.0% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 7.1% per year. Comerica is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Comerica's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Comerica analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Comerica is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.