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Improving credit quality as a result of post-GFC recovery has led to a strong environment for growth in the banking sector. Economic growth impacts the stability of salaries and interest rate level which in turn affects borrowers’ demand for, and ability to repay, their loans. As a small-cap bank with a market capitalisation of US$4.8b, CIT Group Inc.’s (NYSE:CIT) profit and value are directly affected by economic activity. Risk associate with repayment is measured by the level of bad debt which is an expense written off CIT Group’s bottom line. Today we will analyse CIT Group’s level of bad debt and liabilities in order to understand the risk involved with investing in the bank.
How Good Is CIT Group At Forecasting Its Risks?
CIT Group’s ability to forecast and provision for its bad loans indicates it has a good understanding of the level of risk it is taking on. If the level of provisioning covers 100% or more of the actual bad debt expense the bank writes off, then it is relatively accurate and prudent in its bad debt provisioning. Given its high bad loan to bad debt ratio of 173.47% CIT Group has cautiously over-provisioned 73.47% above the appropriate minimum, indicating a safe and prudent forecasting methodology, and its ability to anticipate the factors contributing to its bad loan levels.
How Much Risk Is Too Much?CIT Group is considered to be in a good financial shape if it does not engage in overly risky lending practices. So what constitutes as overly risky? Loans that cannot be recovered by the bank are known as bad loans and typically should make up less than 3% of its total loans. When these loans are not repaid, they are written off as expenses which comes out directly from CIT Group’s profit. A ratio of 0.92% indicates the bank faces relatively low chance of default and exhibits strong bad debt management.
How Big Is CIT Group’s Safety Net?CIT Group operates by lending out its various forms of borrowings. Customers’ deposits tend to carry the smallest risk given the relatively stable interest rate and amount available. The general rule is the higher level of deposits a bank holds, the less risky it is considered to be. Since CIT Group’s total deposit to total liabilities is within the sensible margin at 73% compared to other banks’ level of 50%, it shows a prudent level of the bank’s safer form of borrowing and an appropriate level of risk.
How will CIT’s recent acquisition impact the business going forward? Should you be concerned about the future of CIT and the sustainability of its financial health? Below, I’ve listed three fundamental areas on Simply Wall St’s dashboard for a quick visualization on current trends for CIT. I’ve also used this site as a source of data for my article.
- Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for CIT’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for CIT’s outlook.
- Valuation: What is CIT worth today? Has the future growth potential already been factored into the price? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether CIT is currently mispriced by the market.
- Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at email@example.com.