We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Umpqua Holdings Valuation

Is UMPQ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UMPQ?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

UMPQ key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UMPQ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UMPQ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.8x
INDB Independent Bank
21.4x14.7%US$4.0b
FIBK First Interstate BancSystem
27.1x39.1%US$4.5b
FNB F.N.B
12.5x16.7%US$4.9b
CVBF CVB Financial
18.4x10.0%US$4.0b
UMPQ Umpqua Holdings
12.6x46.7%US$4.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UMPQ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the peer average (19.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UMPQ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a8.0%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UMPQ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the US Banks industry average (10x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UMPQ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UMPQ PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.6x
Fair PE Ratio18.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UMPQ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UMPQ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UMPQ ($19.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($52.93)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UMPQ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UMPQ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$19.92
US$20.42
+2.5%
5.7%US$22.04US$19.00n/a6
Nov ’23US$20.05
US$19.82
-1.1%
5.5%US$21.45US$18.47n/a6
Oct ’23US$17.09
US$20.02
+17.1%
7.2%US$22.65US$18.47n/a6
Sep ’23US$17.75
US$20.02
+12.8%
7.2%US$22.65US$18.47n/a6
Aug ’23US$17.60
US$20.02
+13.7%
7.2%US$22.65US$18.47n/a6
Jul ’23US$17.45
US$19.98
+14.5%
11.3%US$24.40US$18.00n/a6
Jun ’23US$17.45
US$21.15
+21.2%
10.5%US$24.40US$18.47n/a6
May ’23US$16.54
US$21.15
+27.8%
10.5%US$24.40US$18.47n/a6
Apr ’23US$18.36
US$22.08
+20.3%
6.9%US$24.40US$20.00n/a5
Mar ’23US$20.07
US$22.46
+11.9%
5.3%US$24.00US$20.00n/a7
Feb ’23US$20.55
US$22.32
+8.6%
5.6%US$24.00US$20.00n/a6
Jan ’23US$19.24
US$22.64
+17.7%
5.1%US$24.00US$20.85n/a6
Dec ’22US$18.85
US$22.86
+21.3%
3.7%US$24.00US$22.00n/a6
Nov ’22US$21.05
US$22.58
+7.3%
4.9%US$24.00US$21.00US$20.056
Oct ’22US$20.60
US$22.06
+7.1%
3.3%US$23.00US$21.00US$17.098
Sep ’22US$19.41
US$21.83
+12.5%
4.3%US$23.00US$20.00US$17.759
Aug ’22US$18.87
US$21.72
+15.1%
3.9%US$23.00US$20.00US$17.609
Jul ’22US$18.81
US$20.94
+11.3%
5.3%US$23.00US$19.00US$17.459
Jun ’22US$19.24
US$20.72
+7.7%
5.7%US$23.00US$19.00US$17.459
May ’22US$18.64
US$20.31
+9.0%
6.1%US$22.00US$18.00US$16.548
Apr ’22US$17.63
US$19.39
+10.0%
5.7%US$21.00US$18.00US$18.369
Mar ’22US$17.73
US$18.39
+3.7%
9.2%US$20.50US$15.00US$20.079
Feb ’22US$15.10
US$18.39
+21.8%
9.2%US$20.50US$15.00US$20.559
Jan ’22US$15.14
US$16.67
+10.1%
9.1%US$19.00US$15.00US$19.249
Dec ’21US$14.05
US$15.44
+9.9%
14.4%US$19.00US$11.50US$18.859
Nov ’21US$12.56
US$14.83
+18.1%
13.9%US$18.00US$11.50US$21.059

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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