Pathfinder Bancorp (NasdaqCM:PBHC) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of PBHC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

PBHC ($19.5) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($24.35)

PBHC fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

PBHC Stock Overview

Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc. operates as a holding company for Pathfinder Bank that provides various banking and financial products and services primarily in Oswego and Onondaga Counties, New York.

Rewards

Trading at 19.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 59.2% over the past year

Pays a reliable dividend of 1.85%

Risk Analysis

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Pathfinder Bancorp Competitors

South Atlantic Bancshares

OTCPK:SABK

US$117.4m

Fentura Financial

OTCPK:FETM

US$109.0m

CW Bancorp

OTCPK:CWBK

US$114.6m

Eagle Financial Services

OTCPK:EFSI

US$126.0m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Pathfinder Bancorp
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$19.50
52 Week High	US$21.99
52 Week Low	US$15.84
Beta	0.12
1 Month Change	-1.07%
3 Month Change	-6.37%
1 Year Change	21.42%
3 Year Change	46.84%
5 Year Change	28.69%
Change since IPO	458.62%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 01

Pathfinder GAAP EPS of $0.54, revenue of $11.25M

Pathfinder press release (NASDAQ:PBHC): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.54. Revenue of $11.25M (-3.4% Y/Y).

Shareholder Returns

	PBHC	US Banks	US Market
7D	0.4%	0.3%	1.0%
1Y	21.4%	-14.1%	-12.9%

Return vs Industry: PBHC exceeded the US Banks industry which returned -14.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PBHC exceeded the US Market which returned -12.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is PBHC's price volatile compared to industry and market?
PBHC volatility
PBHC Average Weekly Movement	2.5%
Banks Industry Average Movement	3.7%
Market Average Movement	7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	17.1%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: PBHC is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 2% a week.

Volatility Over Time: PBHC's weekly volatility (2%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1859	166	Jim Dowd	https://www.pathfinderbank.com

Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc. operates as a holding company for Pathfinder Bank that provides various banking and financial products and services primarily in Oswego and Onondaga Counties, New York. The company accepts various deposits, including checking, savings, and money market deposit accounts, as well as certificates of deposit, and demand and time deposits. Its loan portfolio comprises commercial real estate loans; commercial loans; residential real estate and construction loans; tax-exempt loans; home equity loans and junior liens; municipal loans; and consumer loans comprising automobile, recreational vehicles, and unsecured personal loans, as well as unsecured lines of credit and loans secured by deposit accounts.

Pathfinder Bancorp Fundamentals Summary

How do Pathfinder Bancorp's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
PBHC fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$115.49m
Earnings (TTM)	US$10.35m
Revenue (TTM)	US$45.59m

11.2x

P/E Ratio

1.1x

P/B Ratio

Is PBHC overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
PBHC income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$45.59m
Cost of Revenue	US$0
Gross Profit	US$45.59m
Other Expenses	US$35.24m
Earnings	US$10.35m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.75
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	22.69%
Debt/Equity Ratio	86.9%

How did PBHC perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.8%

Current Dividend Yield

18%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is PBHC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PBHC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for PBHC. This is calculated by dividing PBHC's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is PBHC's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$115.49m

PBHC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PBHC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

PBHC PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for PBHC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	9.5x
SABK South Atlantic Bancshares	12.5x	18.4%	US$117.4m
FETM Fentura Financial	7.9x	n/a	US$109.0m
CWBK CW Bancorp	7.3x	n/a	US$114.6m
EFSI Eagle Financial Services	10.2x	n/a	US$126.0m
PBHC Pathfinder Bancorp	11.2x	n/a	US$115.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PBHC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x) compared to the peer average (9.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PBHC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PBHC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x) compared to the US Banks industry average (9.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PBHC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PBHC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	11.2x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate PBHC's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PBHC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PBHC ($19.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($24.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PBHC is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is Pathfinder Bancorp forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 0 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

10.4%

Forecasted Banks industry annual growth in earnings

In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Pathfinder Bancorp has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by SimplyWall St do have past financial data.

Discover growth companies

Check out Pathfinder Bancorp's track record over time to understand how much the company has returned to shareholders and its earnings growth rate in the past.

Past Performance

How has Pathfinder Bancorp performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

24.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PBHC has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: PBHC's current net profit margins (22.7%) are higher than last year (17.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PBHC's earnings have grown significantly by 24.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: PBHC's earnings growth over the past year (59.2%) exceeds its 5-year average (24.8% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: PBHC earnings growth over the past year (59.2%) exceeded the Banks industry 9.2%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: PBHC's Return on Equity (12.4%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Pathfinder Bancorp's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: PBHC's Assets to Equity ratio (12.1x) is moderate.

Allowance for Bad Loans: PBHC has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (164%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 91% of PBHC's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: PBHC has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (63%).

Low Risk Deposits: PBHC's Loans to Deposits ratio (76%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: PBHC has an appropriate level of bad loans (0.9%).

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Dividend

What is Pathfinder Bancorp current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.85%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: PBHC's dividend (1.85%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.52%).

High Dividend: PBHC's dividend (1.85%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.09%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: PBHC's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: PBHC's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (18.3%), PBHC's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years or that it will be covered by earnings.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Jim Dowd (54 yo)

5.42yrs

Tenure

US$372,111

Compensation

Mr. James A. Dowd, also known as Jim, CPA serves as Chief Executive Officer of Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc. since April 14, 2022 and serves as its Chief Operating Officer since 2022 and serves as its Interim P...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Jim's total compensation ($USD372.11K) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD767.72K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Jim's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: PBHC's management team is considered experienced (4.5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: PBHC's board of directors are considered experienced (9.4 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: PBHC insiders have sold more shares than they have bought in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 32.5%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/06 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31