NasdaqGM:GFED

Stock Analysis Report

Guaranty Federal Bancshares

Executive Summary

Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Guaranty Bank that provides a range of banking and mortgage services to individual and corporate customers in southwest Missouri.

Rewards

PE ratio (11.6x) is below the US market (18.5x)

Earnings are forecast to grow 4% per year

Earnings grew by 76.8% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record



Snowflake Analysis

Solid track record with excellent balance sheet.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Guaranty Federal Bancshares's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: GFED has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

1.3%

GFED

-1.6%

US Mortgage

-0.3%

US Market


1 Year Return

17.9%

GFED

21.9%

US Mortgage

18.6%

US Market

Return vs Industry: GFED underperformed the US Mortgage industry which returned 21.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GFED exceeded the US Market which returned 18.6% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

GFEDIndustryMarket
7 Day1.3%-1.6%-0.3%
30 Day4.2%0.06%2.2%
90 Day3.3%8.9%5.6%
1 Year20.6%17.9%24.6%21.9%21.1%18.6%
3 Year44.4%35.6%24.2%15.5%45.6%36.2%
5 Year107.1%88.0%74.1%55.2%71.1%52.2%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Guaranty Federal Bancshares's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Guaranty Federal Bancshares undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

11.63x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: GFED ($24.91) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($14.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GFED is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: GFED is good value based on its PE Ratio (11.6x) compared to the Mortgage industry average (14.3x).

PE vs Market: GFED is good value based on its PE Ratio (11.6x) compared to the US market (18.5x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: GFED is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (2.9x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: GFED is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (1.3x) compared to the US Mortgage industry average (1.1x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Guaranty Federal Bancshares forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

4.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GFED's forecast earnings growth (4% per year) is above the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: GFED's earnings (4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GFED's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: GFED's revenue (3.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GFED's revenue (3.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GFED's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Guaranty Federal Bancshares performed over the past 5 years?

9.0%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GFED has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: GFED's current net profit margins (24.3%) are higher than last year (15.3%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GFED's earnings have grown by 9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: GFED's earnings growth over the past year (76.8%) exceeds its 5-year average (9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: GFED earnings growth over the past year (76.8%) exceeded the Mortgage industry 23.1%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: GFED's Return on Equity (11.3%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Guaranty Federal Bancshares's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)


Financial Position Analysis


Debt to Equity History and Analysis


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: GFED has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: GFED's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 1.3x debt).


Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: GFED's level of assets compared to its equity is moderate.

Allowance for Bad Loans: GFED has a low allowance for bad loans.

Low Risk Liabilities: GFED's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: GFED has an acceptable proportion of non-loan assets held.

Low Risk Deposits: GFED's loans are broadly funded by customer deposits.

Level of Bad Loans: GFED has an appropriate level of bad loans (1.3%)


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Guaranty Federal Bancshares's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

2.09%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company2.1%marketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage2.7%forecastin3Years2.2%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: GFED's dividend (2.09%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.42%).

High Dividend: GFED's dividend (2.09%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.7%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, GFED has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: GFED's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 5 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its low payout ratio (24.3%), GFED's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: GFED's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (25.6% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Guaranty Federal Bancshares's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

10.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Shaun Burke (55yo)

14.8yrs

Tenure

US$439,490

Compensation

Mr. Shaun A. Burke joined Guaranty Bank (the “Bank”) in March 09, 2004 as President and Chief Executive Officer. He was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc.  ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Shaun's total compensation ($USD439.49K) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD508.62K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Shaun's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

10.8yrs

Average Tenure

55yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: GFED's management team is seasoned and experienced (10.8 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

11.6yrs

Average Tenure

55yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: GFED's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 11.6 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

BuyUS$2,28219 Jun 19
Daniel Williams
EntityIndividual
Shares100
Max PriceUS$22.82
BuyUS$68,75730 May 19
John Griesemer
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares3,000
Max PriceUS$23.00
BuyUS$117,21413 May 19
John Griesemer
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares5,000
Max PriceUS$23.88
BuyUS$11,78026 Apr 19
Carter Peters
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Financial Officer
Executive VP & CFO
Shares500
Max PriceUS$23.56

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • Shaun Burke (55yo)

    President

    • Tenure: 14.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$439.49k
  • Carter Peters (49yo)

    Executive VP & CFO

    • Tenure: 12.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$293.97k
  • Robin Robeson (53yo)

    Executive VP & COO - Guaranty Bank

    • Tenure: 7.4yrs
    • Compensation: US$313.66k
  • Michael Calcote (56yo)

    Treasurer

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Sheri Biser (55yo)

    Executive VP & Chief Credit Officer - Guaranty Bank

    • Tenure: 10.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$252.01k
  • Vicki Lindsay

    Corporate Secretary

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Carlye Wannenmacher

    VP & Director of Marketing - Guaranty Bank

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Jeff Williams

    President of Joplin Market - Guaranty Bank

    • Tenure: 3.7yrs
  • Dana Elwell (66yo)

    Vice President

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Vickie Griffin (65yo)

    HR Director

    • Tenure: 0yrs

Board Members

  • James Batten (56yo)

    Chairman

    • Tenure: 3.6yrs
    • Compensation: US$32.80k
  • David Moore (48yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 5.6yrs
    • Compensation: US$31.99k
  • Kurt Hellweg (61yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 19.9yrs
    • Compensation: US$31.95k
  • Tim Rosenbury (62yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 17.9yrs
    • Compensation: US$32.24k
  • James Sivils (54yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 17.9yrs
    • Compensation: US$30.95k
  • Shaun Burke (55yo)

    President

    • Tenure: 14.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$439.49k
  • John Griesemer (51yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 11.6yrs
    • Compensation: US$32.42k
  • Tony Scavuzzo (37yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 1.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$5.98k
  • Greg Horton (59yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 3.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$29.70k

Company Information

Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc.
  • Ticker: GFED
  • Exchange: NasdaqGM
  • Founded: 1913
  • Industry: Thrifts and Mortgage Finance
  • Sector: Banks
  • Market Cap: US$109.489m
  • Shares outstanding: 4.38m
  • Website: https://www.gbankmo.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc.
  • 2144 E Republic Road
  • Suite F200
  • Springfield
  • Missouri
  • 65804
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
GFEDNasdaqGM (Nasdaq Global Market)YesCommon StockUSUSDDec 1997

Biography

Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Guaranty Bank that provides a range of banking and mortgage services to individual and corporate customers in southwest Missouri.  ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/12/06 23:39
End of Day Share Price2019/12/06 00:00
Earnings2019/09/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.