Does Guaranty Federal Bancshares (NASDAQ:GFED) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

It’s only natural that many investors, especially those who are new to the game, prefer to buy shares in ‘sexy’ stocks with a good story, even if those businesses lose money. Unfortunately, high risk investments often have little probability of ever paying off, and many investors pay a price to learn their lesson.

If, on the other hand, you like companies that have revenue, and even earn profits, then you may well be interested in Guaranty Federal Bancshares (NASDAQ:GFED). While that doesn’t make the shares worth buying at any price, you can’t deny that successful capitalism requires profit, eventually. Loss-making companies are always racing against time to reach financial sustainability, but time is often a friend of the profitable company, especially if it is growing.

Check out our latest analysis for Guaranty Federal Bancshares

How Fast Is Guaranty Federal Bancshares Growing?

The market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long term, so share price follows earnings per share (EPS) eventually. Therefore, there are plenty of investors who like to buy shares in companies that are growing EPS. It certainly is nice to see that Guaranty Federal Bancshares has managed to grow EPS by 19% per year over three years. If the company can sustain that sort of growth, we’d expect shareholders to come away winners.

One way to double-check a company’s growth is to look at how its revenue, and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins are changing. Not all of Guaranty Federal Bancshares’s revenue this year is revenue from operations, so keep in mind the revenue and margin numbers I’ve used might not be the best representation of the underlying business. Guaranty Federal Bancshares maintained stable EBIT margins over the last year, all while growing revenue 11% to US$39m. That’s a real positive.

You can take a look at the company’s revenue and earnings growth trend, in the chart below.

NasdaqGM:GFED Income Statement, November 20th 2019
NasdaqGM:GFED Income Statement, November 20th 2019

Guaranty Federal Bancshares isn’t a huge company, given its market capitalization of US$109m. That makes it extra important to check on its balance sheet strength.

Are Guaranty Federal Bancshares Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

Like standing at the lookout, surveying the horizon at sunrise, insider buying, for some investors, sparks joy. That’s because insider buying often indicates that those closest to the company have confidence that the share price will perform well. However, small purchases are not always indicative of conviction, and insiders don’t always get it right.

It’s good to see Guaranty Federal Bancshares insiders walking the walk, by spending US$200k on shares in just twelve months. When you contrast that with the complete lack of sales, it’s easy for shareholders to brim with joyful expectancy. Zooming in, we can see that the biggest insider purchase was by Independent Director John Griesemer for US$117k worth of shares, at about US$23.88 per share.

It’s me that Guaranty Federal Bancshares insiders are buying the stock, but that’s not the only reason to think leader are fair to shareholders. Specifically, the CEO is paid quite reasonably for a company of this size. I discovered that the median total compensation for the CEOs of companies like Guaranty Federal Bancshares with market caps under US$200m is about US$505k.

The Guaranty Federal Bancshares CEO received US$439k in compensation for the year ending December 2018. That comes in below the average for similar sized companies, and seems pretty reasonable to me. CEO remuneration levels are not the most important metric for investors, but when the pay is modest, that does support enhanced alignment between the CEO and the ordinary shareholders. It can also be a sign of good governance, more generally.

Should You Add Guaranty Federal Bancshares To Your Watchlist?

Given my belief that share price follows earnings per share you can easily imagine how I feel about Guaranty Federal Bancshares’s strong EPS growth. And that’s not the only positive, either. We have both insider buying and reasonable and remuneration to consider. On balance the message seems to be that this stock is worth looking at, at least for a while. While we’ve looked at the quality of the earnings, we haven’t yet done any work to value the stock. So if you like to buy cheap, you may want to check if Guaranty Federal Bancshares is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. So if you like the sound of Guaranty Federal Bancshares, you’ll probably love this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

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