First Savings Financial Group (NasdaqCM:FSFG) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of FSFG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

FSFG ($23.82) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($50.31)

FSFG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	2/6

FSFG Stock Overview

First Savings Financial Group, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for First Savings Bank that provides various financial services to consumers and businesses in southern Indiana.

Rewards

Trading at 52.7% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 4.93% per year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

First Savings Financial Group Competitors

Private Bancorp of America

OTCPK:PBAM

US$161.9m

Communities First Financial

OTCPK:CFST

US$167.9m

Virginia National Bankshares

NasdaqCM:VABK

US$163.5m

Meridian

NasdaqGS:MRBK

US$177.9m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for First Savings Financial Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$23.82
52 Week High	US$29.98
52 Week Low	US$23.38
Beta	0.79
1 Month Change	-5.96%
3 Month Change	-2.93%
1 Year Change	-2.32%
3 Year Change	20.10%
5 Year Change	38.60%
Change since IPO	621.82%

Shareholder Returns

	FSFG	US Banks	US Market
7D	0.4%	-0.01%	1.6%
1Y	-2.3%	-18.2%	-20.8%

Return vs Industry: FSFG exceeded the US Banks industry which returned -16.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: FSFG exceeded the US Market which returned -20.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is FSFG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
FSFG volatility
FSFG Average Weekly Movement	2.5%
Banks Industry Average Movement	3.8%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: FSFG is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 2% a week.

Volatility Over Time: FSFG's weekly volatility (2%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2008	570	Larry Myers	https://www.fsbbank.net

First Savings Financial Group, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for First Savings Bank that provides various financial services to consumers and businesses in southern Indiana. The company operates through three segments: Core Banking, SBA Lending, and Mortgage Banking. It accepts deposits, such as checking accounts, NOW and money market accounts, regular savings accounts, and time deposits.

First Savings Financial Group Fundamentals Summary

How do First Savings Financial Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
FSFG fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$169.56m
Earnings (TTM)	US$20.50m
Revenue (TTM)	US$130.80m

8.3x

P/E Ratio

0.9x

P/B Ratio

Is FSFG overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
FSFG income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$130.80m
Cost of Revenue	US$0
Gross Profit	US$130.80m
Other Expenses	US$110.31m
Earnings	US$20.50m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.88
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	15.67%
Debt/Equity Ratio	194.7%

How did FSFG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.2%

Current Dividend Yield

17%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is FSFG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FSFG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for FSFG. This is calculated by dividing FSFG's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is FSFG's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$169.56m

FSFG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	1.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FSFG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

FSFG PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for FSFG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8.2x
PBAM Private Bancorp of America	7.1x	-0.5%	US$161.9m
CFST Communities First Financial	7.6x	n/a	US$167.9m
VABK Virginia National Bankshares	12.1x	n/a	US$163.5m
MRBK Meridian	5.7x	0.3%	US$177.9m
FSFG First Savings Financial Group	8.3x	4.9%	US$169.6m

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FSFG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the peer average (8.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FSFG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FSFG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the US Banks industry average (9.5x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FSFG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FSFG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	8.3x
Fair PE Ratio	11.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FSFG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FSFG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FSFG ($23.82) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($50.31)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FSFG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: FSFG is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.7x)

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Future Growth

How is First Savings Financial Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

4.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FSFG's forecast earnings growth (4.9% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: FSFG's earnings (4.9% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: FSFG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: FSFG's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-26% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FSFG's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-26% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if FSFG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has First Savings Financial Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

29.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: FSFG has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: FSFG's current net profit margins (15.7%) are lower than last year (21.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: FSFG's earnings have grown significantly by 29.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: FSFG's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: FSFG had negative earnings growth (-59.8%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Banks industry average (20.7%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: FSFG's Return on Equity (11.4%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is First Savings Financial Group's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: FSFG's Assets to Equity ratio (10x) is moderate.

Allowance for Bad Loans: FSFG has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (144%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 75% of FSFG's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: FSFG has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (63%).

Low Risk Deposits: FSFG's Loans to Deposits ratio (92%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: FSFG has an appropriate level of bad loans (0.9%).

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Dividend

What is First Savings Financial Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

2.18%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: FSFG's dividend (2.18%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.59%).

High Dividend: FSFG's dividend (2.18%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.25%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, FSFG has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: FSFG's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 9 years.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (17%), FSFG's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years or that it will be covered by earnings.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

7.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Larry Myers (63 yo)

14.42yrs

Tenure

US$1,093,923

Compensation

Mr. Larry W. Myers serves as the Chief Executive Officer and President of First Savings Financial Group, Inc. and First Savings Bank, F.S.B. (Clarksville, IN) (First Savings Bank) since 2009 and 2007 respe...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Larry's total compensation ($USD1.09M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD1.76M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Larry's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: FSFG's management team is seasoned and experienced (7.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: FSFG's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 12.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: FSFG insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/29 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/29 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/09/30