Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. That downside risk was realized by Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:BWB) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 18%. That contrasts poorly with the market return of 18%. Bridgewater Bancshares may have better days ahead, of course; we've only looked at a one year period. There was little comfort for shareholders in the last week as the price declined a further 4.7%.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Even though the Bridgewater Bancshares share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the the market had expectations of much higher growth, last year. But other metrics might shed some light on why the share price is down.
Bridgewater Bancshares managed to grow revenue over the last year, which is usually a real positive. Since we can't easily explain the share price movement based on these metrics, it might be worth considering how market sentiment has changed towards the stock.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling Bridgewater Bancshares stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
A Different Perspective
Given that the market gained 18% in the last year, Bridgewater Bancshares shareholders might be miffed that they lost 18%. While the aim is to do better than that, it's worth recalling that even great long-term investments sometimes underperform for a year or more. Putting aside the last twelve months, it's good to see the share price has rebounded by 4.2%, in the last ninety days. Let's just hope this isn't the widely-feared 'dead cat bounce' (which would indicate further declines to come). It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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