Earnings Beat: Sierra Bancorp Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Sierra Bancorp (NASDAQ:BSRR) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.8% to US$29.39 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. Sierra Bancorp reported US$39m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.78 beat expectations, being 5.7% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Sierra Bancorp's five analysts is for revenues of US$155.3m in 2025. This would reflect an okay 6.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$2.99, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$154.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.94 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Sierra Bancorp

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$32.00, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Sierra Bancorp analyst has a price target of US$36.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$30.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Sierra Bancorp is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Sierra Bancorp's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.3% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.6% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Sierra Bancorp to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Sierra Bancorp analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Sierra Bancorp is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.