It’s been a good week for BancFirst Corporation (NASDAQ:BANF) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 5.7% to US$58.30. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of US$108m coming in 2.5% ahead of expectations, and earnings per share of US$1.00, in line with analyst appraisals. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance in its report, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see whether the latest forecasts would suggest a change of heart on the company. Readers will be glad to know we’ve aggregated the latest forecasts to see whether analysts have changed their mind on BancFirst after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from BancFirst’s five analysts is for revenues of US$436m in 2020, which would reflect a meaningful 9.1% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Earnings per share are expected to be US$3.97, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$434m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.89 in 2020. Analysts seem to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
There’s been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$58.75, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock’s valuation. The consensus price target just an average of individual analyst targets, so – considering that the price target changed, it would be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BancFirst at US$62.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$57.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggests analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how analyst forecasts compare, both to the BancFirst’s past performance and to peers in the same market. Next year brings more of the same, according to analysts, with revenue forecast to grow 9.1%, in line with its 8.4% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 2.5% per year. So although BancFirst is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it’s definitely expected to grow faster than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away from this is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards BancFirst following these results. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations – and our data does suggest that BancFirst’s revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for BancFirst going out to 2021, and you can see them free on our platform here..
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