Atlantic Union Bankshares (NasdaqGS:AUB) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of AUB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AUB ($34.52) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($48.49)

AUB fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

AUB Stock Overview

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation operates as the holding company for Atlantic Union Bank that provides banking and related financial services to consumers and businesses.

Rewards

Trading at 28.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 9.8% per year

Earnings have grown 23.5% per year over the past 5 years

Pays a reliable dividend of 3.24%

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for AUB from our risk checks.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Competitors

Central Bancompany

OTCPK:CBCY.B

US$2.7b

Independent Bank Group

NasdaqGS:IBTX

US$2.9b

Fulton Financial

NasdaqGS:FULT

US$2.3b

First Merchants

NasdaqGS:FRME

US$2.2b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Atlantic Union Bankshares
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$34.52
52 Week High	US$42.67
52 Week Low	US$31.44
Beta	1.14
1 Month Change	-0.92%
3 Month Change	-5.73%
1 Year Change	-4.64%
3 Year Change	-2.49%
5 Year Change	-0.087%
Change since IPO	590.40%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 20

Atlantic Union Bankshares: Attractively Valued But Earnings Will Likely Decline Due To Provisioning

Acquisitions and regional economic factors will likely drive loan growth this year. The interest income is quite sensitive to interest rate hikes thanks to the nature of the loan portfolio. Provisioning will likely be higher in the remainder of the year compared to the first quarter due to loan additions and higher interest rates. The December 2022 target price suggests a high upside from the current market price. Further, Atlantic Union Bankshares is offering a decent dividend yield.

May 07

Atlantic Union Bankshares' (NASDAQ:AUB) Dividend Will Be US$0.28

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation ( NASDAQ:AUB ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of US$0.28 per share on...

Shareholder Returns

	AUB	US Banks	US Market
7D	1.9%	-1.9%	-2.5%
1Y	-4.6%	-18.3%	-21.2%

Return vs Industry: AUB exceeded the US Banks industry which returned -18.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AUB exceeded the US Market which returned -21.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AUB's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AUB volatility
AUB Average Weekly Movement	4.0%
Banks Industry Average Movement	3.8%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: AUB is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AUB's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1902	1,876	John Asbury	https://www.atlanticunionbank.com

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation operates as the holding company for Atlantic Union Bank that provides banking and related financial services to consumers and businesses. The company accepts various deposit products, including checking, savings, NOW, time deposit, and money market accounts; certificates of deposit; and other depository services. It also provides loans for commercial, industrial, residential mortgage, and consumer purposes.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Fundamentals Summary

How do Atlantic Union Bankshares's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AUB fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$2.59b
Earnings (TTM)	US$239.55m
Revenue (TTM)	US$716.73m

10.8x

P/E Ratio

1.0x

P/B Ratio

Is AUB overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AUB income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$716.73m
Cost of Revenue	US$0
Gross Profit	US$716.73m
Other Expenses	US$477.18m
Earnings	US$239.55m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	3.19
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	33.42%
Debt/Equity Ratio	23.9%

How did AUB perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.2%

Current Dividend Yield

36%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is AUB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AUB?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for AUB. This is calculated by dividing AUB's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is AUB's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$2.59b

AUB key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AUB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

AUB PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for AUB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	11.1x
CBCY.B Central Bancompany	10.9x	n/a	US$2.7b
IBTX Independent Bank Group	13.6x	9.0%	US$2.9b
FULT Fulton Financial	9.1x	12.3%	US$2.3b
FRME First Merchants	10.5x	19.0%	US$2.2b
AUB Atlantic Union Bankshares	10.8x	9.8%	US$2.6b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AUB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the peer average (11.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AUB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AUB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the US Banks industry average (9.5x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AUB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AUB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	10.8x
Fair PE Ratio	13.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AUB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AUB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AUB ($34.52) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($48.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AUB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: AUB is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.1x)

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Future Growth

How is Atlantic Union Bankshares forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

9.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AUB's forecast earnings growth (9.8% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: AUB's earnings (9.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AUB's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AUB's revenue (5.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AUB's revenue (5.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if AUB's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Atlantic Union Bankshares performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

23.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AUB has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: AUB's current net profit margins (33.4%) are higher than last year (29.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AUB's earnings have grown significantly by 23.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: AUB's earnings growth over the past year (20.6%) is below its 5-year average (23.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: AUB earnings growth over the past year (20.6%) underperformed the Banks industry 20.8%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: AUB's Return on Equity (10.1%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Atlantic Union Bankshares's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: AUB's Assets to Equity ratio (7.9x) is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: AUB has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (353%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 95% of AUB's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: AUB has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (68%).

Low Risk Deposits: AUB's Loans to Deposits ratio (81%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: AUB has an appropriate level of bad loans (0.2%).

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Dividend

What is Atlantic Union Bankshares's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

3.24%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: AUB's dividend (3.24%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.6%).

High Dividend: AUB's dividend (3.24%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.25%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: AUB's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: AUB's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (35.8%), AUB's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years or that it will be covered by earnings.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

John Asbury (56 yo)

5.75yrs

Tenure

US$3,265,938

Compensation

Mr. John C. Asbury has been the Chief Executive Officer of Atlantic Union Bank since October 1, 2016 and served as and President from October 2016 to September 2017. He was President of Atlantic Union Bank...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: John's total compensation ($USD3.27M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.91M).

Compensation vs Earnings: John's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: AUB's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.6 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: AUB's board of directors are considered experienced (5.1 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/02 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31