Reassessing LiveWire Group (LVWR) Valuation Following Widened 2025 Loss Guidance and Quarterly Earnings Update

LiveWire Group (LVWR) updated its guidance for 2025, now expecting a wider operating loss range of $72 million to $77 million, up from its previous estimate. This announcement was released together with the company’s third-quarter earnings results and provided key updates for investors.

See our latest analysis for LiveWire Group.

LiveWire Group’s announcement of a wider expected operating loss for 2025 appears to have weighed on sentiment even as quarterly losses improved from last year. The stock’s momentum has been turbulent, with a notable 30.8% 3-month share price return but a challenging 1-year total shareholder return of -22.6%. In summary, short-term gains are evident, but long-term holders are still waiting for a sustained turnaround.

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With recent volatility and lowered guidance in mind, investors are left weighing whether LiveWire’s shares offer untapped value, or if the market has already factored in expectations for improved performance next year. Is there a genuine buying opportunity, or are future gains priced in?

Price-to-Sales Ratio of 40.4x: Is it justified?

LiveWire Group is priced at a hefty price-to-sales ratio of 40.4, far exceeding both its peers and the broader US Auto industry. With a last close of $4.97, this places the stock deep into expensive territory on this metric.

The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio indicates how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of the company’s sales. For an unprofitable, early-stage manufacturer like LiveWire Group, a high P/S can sometimes reflect optimistic expectations around future revenue growth and market leadership. However, such a premium is only justified if rapid, high-quality sales expansion is expected or already evident.

Compared to its peers (P/S 0.8x) and the US Auto industry average (P/S 1x), LiveWire’s 40.4x multiple looks extreme. The market appears to be pricing in outstanding growth that has not yet been demonstrated in the company’s financial results.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Result: Price-to-Sales of 40.4x (OVERVALUED)

However, persistent net losses and the lack of clear revenue growth remain crucial risks that could challenge optimism around LiveWire’s current valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this LiveWire Group narrative.

Build Your Own LiveWire Group Narrative

If you’d rather form your own view or dig deeper into the numbers, you can build your personal assessment in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your LiveWire Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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