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Harley-Davidson

NYSE:HOG
Snowflake Description

Established dividend payer and good value.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
HOG
NYSE
$6B
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. US
  3. Automobiles
Company description

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles. The last earnings update was 66 days ago. More info.


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HOG Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
1.7%
NYSE:HOG
2.7%
US Auto
0.6%
US Market
1 Year Returns
-14.7%
NYSE:HOG
-7.3%
US Auto
4.7%
US Market
HOG Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Harley-Davidson (HOG) 1.7% 5.7% -8.6% -14.7% -23.8% -45.6%
US Auto 2.7% 9.6% 1.4% -7.3% 15.6% -14.6%
US Market 0.6% 4.2% 2.7% 4.7% 38% 43.5%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • HOG underperformed the Auto industry which returned -7.3% over the past year.
  • HOG underperformed the Market in United States of America which returned 4.7% over the past year.
Price Volatility
HOG
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

Value

 Is Harley-Davidson undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Harley-Davidson to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Harley-Davidson.

NYSE:HOG Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 17 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 9.7%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year US Government Bond Rate 2.7%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for NYSE:HOG
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year US Govt Bond Rate 2.7%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6%
Auto Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.62
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.623 (1 + (1- 21%) (128.07%))
1.17
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
1.17
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.73% + (1.17 * 5.96%)
9.7%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NYSE:HOG using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Harley-Davidson is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

NYSE:HOG DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 9.7%)
2020 724.58 Analyst x5 660.50
2021 680.50 Analyst x2 565.46
2022 685.00 Analyst x1 518.86
2023 714.00 Analyst x1 492.99
2024 717.90 Est @ 0.55% 451.85
2025 726.53 Est @ 1.2% 416.84
2026 738.59 Est @ 1.66% 386.28
2027 753.23 Est @ 1.98% 359.10
2028 769.84 Est @ 2.21% 334.56
2029 788.03 Est @ 2.36% 312.18
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $4,498.61
NYSE:HOG DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $788.03 × (1 + 2.73%) ÷ (9.7% – 2.73%)
$11,611.48
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= $11,611.48 ÷ (1 + 9.7%)10
$4,599.85
NYSE:HOG Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $4,498.61 + $4,599.85
$9,098.46
Equity Value per Share
(USD)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $9,098.46 / 157.18
$57.89
NYSE:HOG Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (USD) From above. $57.89
Current discount Discount to share price of $36.63
= -1 x ($36.63 - $57.89) / $57.89
36.7%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

Current Discount
Amount off the current price Harley-Davidson is available for.
Intrinsic value
37%
Share price is $36.63 vs Future cash flow value of $57.89
Current Discount Checks
For Harley-Davidson to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the current price. Less than 40% is even better.
  • Harley-Davidson's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
  • Harley-Davidson's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Harley-Davidson's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Harley-Davidson's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
NYSE:HOG PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2019-03-31) in USD $2.96
NYSE:HOG Share Price ** NYSE (2019-07-12) in USD $36.63
United States of America Auto Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 6 Publicly-Listed Auto Companies 12.93x
United States of America Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 3,084 Publicly-Listed Companies 18.01x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Harley-Davidson.

NYSE:HOG PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= NYSE:HOG Share Price ÷ EPS (both in USD)

= 36.63 ÷ 2.96

12.36x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Harley-Davidson is good value based on earnings compared to the US Auto industry average.
  • Harley-Davidson is good value based on earnings compared to the United States of America market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Harley-Davidson's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
NYSE:HOG PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 12.36x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 17 Analysts
5.2%per year
United States of America Auto Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 6 Publicly-Listed Auto Companies 1.7x
United States of America Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 2,125 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.59x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

NYSE:HOG PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 12.36x ÷ 5.2%

2.37x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Harley-Davidson is poor value based on expected growth next year.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Harley-Davidson's assets?
Raw Data
NYSE:HOG PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2019-03-31) in USD $11.44
NYSE:HOG Share Price * NYSE (2019-07-12) in USD $36.63
United States of America Auto Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 11 Publicly-Listed Auto Companies 5.3x
United States of America Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 5,239 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.81x
NYSE:HOG PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= NYSE:HOG Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in USD)

= 36.63 ÷ 11.44

3.2x

* Primary Listing of Harley-Davidson.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Harley-Davidson is good value based on assets compared to the US Auto industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Harley-Davidson's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Auto industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Auto industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Harley-Davidson has a total score of 4/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Future Performance

 How is Harley-Davidson expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 17 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
5.2%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Harley-Davidson expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Harley-Davidson's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.7%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Harley-Davidson's earnings growth is positive but not above the United States of America market average.
  • Harley-Davidson's revenue growth is positive but not above the United States of America market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
NYSE:HOG Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
NYSE:HOG Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 17 Analysts 5.2%
NYSE:HOG Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 17 Analysts 0.2%
United States of America Auto Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 22.5%
United States of America Auto Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 7.1%
United States of America Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 14.1%
United States of America Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 7.5%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
NYSE:HOG Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 17 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in USD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
NYSE:HOG Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31 5,025 618 1
2022-12-31 4,896 579 2
2021-12-31 4,824 552 4
2020-12-31 4,779 971 572 17
2019-12-31 4,770 919 498 17
NYSE:HOG Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2019-03-31 5,559 1,047 485
2018-12-31 5,717 1,206 531
2018-09-30 5,800 1,179 539
2018-07-01 5,635 1,114 494
2018-04-01 5,687 1,037 510
2017-12-31 5,647 1,005 522
2017-09-24 5,529 1,196 561
2017-06-25 5,653 1,345 606
2017-03-26 5,748 1,293 628
2016-12-31 5,996 1,174 692
2016-09-25 6,066 1,007 687
2016-06-26 6,109 942 713

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Harley-Davidson's earnings are expected to grow by 5.2% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
  • Harley-Davidson's revenue is expected to grow by 0.2% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
NYSE:HOG Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 17 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Harley-Davidson Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:HOG Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31
2022-12-31 3.75 3.75 3.75 1.00
2021-12-31 3.66 3.98 3.36 3.00
2020-12-31 3.74 4.08 3.13 15.00
2019-12-31 3.15 3.69 2.82 14.00
NYSE:HOG Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS *
2019-03-31 2.96
2018-12-31 3.21
2018-09-30 3.23
2018-07-01 2.94
2018-04-01 3.00
2017-12-31 3.03
2017-09-24 3.22
2017-06-25 3.44
2017-03-26 3.53
2016-12-31 3.85
2016-09-25 3.76
2016-06-26 3.77

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Harley-Davidson is expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity greater than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess Harley-Davidson's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Harley-Davidson has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Past Performance

  How has Harley-Davidson performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Harley-Davidson's growth in the last year to its industry (Auto).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Harley-Davidson's year on year earnings growth rate was negative over the past 5 years and the most recent earnings are below average.
  • Harley-Davidson's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the 5-year average.
  • Harley-Davidson's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the US Auto industry average.
Earnings and Revenue History
Harley-Davidson's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Harley-Davidson Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:HOG Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2019-03-31 5,559.13 484.63 1,061.26
2018-12-31 5,716.88 531.45 1,090.44
2018-09-30 5,799.94 539.27 1,067.03
2018-07-01 5,635.47 493.62 1,055.64
2018-04-01 5,687.41 510.15 1,030.95
2017-12-31 5,647.22 521.76 1,016.76
2017-09-24 5,528.90 560.62 993.45
2017-06-25 5,652.51 606.48 997.16
2017-03-26 5,748.42 628.04 1,030.66
2016-12-31 5,996.46 692.16 1,062.00
2016-09-25 6,066.49 687.18 1,081.98
2016-06-26 6,109.11 713.46 1,071.46
2016-03-27 6,072.43 732.84 1,053.55
2015-12-31 5,995.40 752.21 1,040.27
2015-09-27 6,014.92 784.49 1,027.28
2015-06-28 5,999.10 794.21 1,027.71
2015-03-29 6,175.41 848.55 1,012.26
2014-12-31 6,228.51 844.61 1,011.92
2014-09-28 6,218.99 845.55 998.08
2014-06-29 6,261.10 858.20 990.07
2014-03-30 6,054.71 775.78 988.68
2013-12-31 5,899.87 733.99 981.57
2013-09-29 5,880.10 729.22 986.48
2013-06-30 5,786.68 700.51 970.38
2013-03-31 5,722.03 676.02 968.66
2012-12-31 5,580.51 623.93 966.06
2012-09-30 5,593.58 607.93 964.98

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Whilst Harley-Davidson has efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity greater than 20%), this is metric is skewed due to its high level of debt.
  • Harley-Davidson used its assets more efficiently than the US Auto industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • Harley-Davidson's use of capital deteriorated last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess Harley-Davidson's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Auto industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Harley-Davidson has a total score of 1/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Health

 How is Harley-Davidson's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Harley-Davidson's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Harley-Davidson is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Harley-Davidson's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Harley-Davidson's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • Low level of unsold assets.
  • Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0.6x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Harley-Davidson Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago.

NYSE:HOG Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2019-03-31 1,797.61 7,316.56 394.39
2018-12-31 1,773.95 7,599.28 554.56
2018-09-30 2,152.97 7,096.53 586.68
2018-07-01 2,161.53 7,141.71 627.78
2018-04-01 1,995.95 7,018.17 403.01
2017-12-31 1,844.28 6,988.01 338.19
2017-09-24 1,856.82 6,973.07 311.03
2017-06-25 2,046.17 7,172.35 586.89
2017-03-26 1,993.41 6,971.22 484.44
2016-12-31 1,920.16 6,807.57 431.06
2016-09-25 1,992.37 6,926.19 443.91
2016-06-26 2,021.01 7,061.32 450.73
2016-03-27 1,892.82 7,112.77 394.42
2015-12-31 1,839.65 6,872.20 445.64
2015-09-27 2,559.67 6,936.11 1,010.72
2015-06-28 3,023.63 6,226.70 880.81
2015-03-29 2,935.84 5,928.48 821.39
2014-12-31 2,909.29 5,504.63 631.22
2014-09-28 3,284.36 5,443.87 687.71
2014-06-29 3,366.26 5,358.93 693.52
2014-03-30 3,159.84 5,094.64 641.23
2013-12-31 3,009.49 5,259.17 817.92
2013-09-29 2,881.85 5,183.51 775.20
2013-06-30 2,821.24 5,536.37 1,068.73
2013-03-31 2,657.05 5,295.41 808.22
2012-12-31 2,557.62 5,103.02 863.35
2012-09-30 2,703.36 5,874.97 1,184.81
  • Harley-Davidson's level of debt (407%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has increased over the past 5 years (161.2% vs 407% today).
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (14.3%, less than 20% of total debt).
  • Interest payments on debt are well covered by earnings (EBIT is 29.3x coverage).
X
Financial health checks
We assess Harley-Davidson's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Harley-Davidson has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Dividends

 What is Harley-Davidson's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
4.1%
Current annual income from Harley-Davidson dividends. Estimated to be 4.31% next year.
If you bought $2,000 of Harley-Davidson shares you are expected to receive $82 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Harley-Davidson's pays a higher dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (1.41%).
  • Harley-Davidson's dividend is above the markets top 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (3.71%).
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
NYSE:HOG Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 17 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
United States of America Auto Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 6 Stocks 3.7%
United States of America Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 2018 Stocks 2.4%
United States of America Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 0.8%
United States of America Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 1.4%
United States of America Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 3.7%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

NYSE:HOG Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31
2022-12-31 1.50 1.00
2021-12-31 1.69 5.00
2020-12-31 1.58 10.00
2019-12-31 1.54 10.00
NYSE:HOG Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per share (annual) Avg. Yield (%)
2019-05-09 1.500 4.287
2019-02-27 1.500 4.011
2018-11-27 1.480 4.069
2018-09-05 1.480 3.548
2018-05-10 1.480 3.462
2018-02-05 1.480 3.405
2018-01-30 1.460 3.021
2017-08-29 1.460 2.970
2017-05-01 1.460 2.833
2017-02-02 1.460 2.486
2016-11-29 1.400 2.365
2016-08-30 1.400 2.588
2016-05-02 1.400 2.909
2016-02-03 1.400 3.077
2015-12-01 1.240 2.847
2015-09-01 1.240 2.392
2015-08-06 1.240 2.155
2015-07-21 1.240 2.132
2015-02-04 1.240 2.117
2014-12-02 1.100 1.689
2014-09-03 1.100 1.742
2014-04-28 1.100 1.625
2014-02-05 1.100 1.653
2013-12-03 0.840 1.252
2013-08-30 0.840 1.299
2013-04-29 0.840 1.499
2013-02-05 0.840 1.597
2013-01-29 0.620 1.174
2012-11-08 0.620 1.277
2012-10-23 0.620 1.327
2012-08-09 0.620 1.442
2012-08-01 0.620 1.482
2012-02-07 0.620 1.305
2011-12-06 0.500 1.239
2011-09-08 0.500 1.366
2011-05-02 0.500 1.310
2011-02-10 0.400 0.991
2010-12-07 0.400 1.096
2010-09-16 0.400 1.294
2010-04-26 0.400 1.470
2010-02-11 0.400 1.432
2009-12-10 0.400 1.613
2009-09-10 0.400 1.547
2009-04-27 0.400 2.091
2009-02-12 0.400 3.171
2008-12-09 1.320 9.055
2008-09-17 1.320 6.036

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Dividends per share have been volatile in the past 10 years (annual drop of over 20%).
  • Dividends per share have increased over the past 10 years.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Harley-Davidson's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Dividends paid are covered by earnings (2x coverage).
Future Payout to shareholders
  • Dividends after 3 years are expected to be well covered by earnings (2.4x coverage).
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Harley-Davidson's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 0.8%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Harley-Davidson afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Harley-Davidson has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Management

 What is the CEO of Harley-Davidson's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Matt Levatich
COMPENSATION $9,149,692
AGE 54
TENURE AS CEO 4.2 years
CEO Bio

Mr. Matthew S. Levatich, also known as Matt, has been the Chief Executive Officer since May 1, 2015 and is its President. He served as President of Harley-Davidson, Inc. since May 1, 2015. Mr. Levatich served as the President and Chief Operating Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company, Inc. from May 1, 2009 to May 1, 2015. He served as President and Managing Director of MV Agusta, the Italian motorcycle maker that Harley-Davidson, Inc. acquired last August. While at MV, he spearheaded the restarting of MV's operations. In his 15 years at Harley-Davidson, he has held positions of increasing responsibility in the U.S. and Europe. He served as General Manager of Parts & Accessories and Custom Vehicle Operations and Vice President of Materials Management - Harley-Davidson Motor at Harley-Davidson, Inc., since November 2007 to July 2008 and October 2003 to October 2007 respectively. He joined Harley-Davidson in 1994 through its Leadership Development Program and quickly worked his way up to several senior roles within Harley-Davidson. Before that, he had managed all aspects of Harley-Davidson's global parts and accessories business after successfully leading its worldwide supply chain operations. Prior to Harley-Davidson, he held various supervising roles at Albany International in New York. He has been an Independent Director of Emerson Electric Co., since August 2012 and of Harley-Davidson, Inc. since February 4, 2015. He serves on the executive advisory board of the MMM Program at the J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management and Robert R. McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Sciences at Northwestern University and is a trustee on the Milwaukee Institute of Art and Design and a Regent at the Milwaukee School of Engineering (MSOE). Mr. Levatich holds an Undergraduate Degree in Mechanical Engineering from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. He holds ME in Engineering Management and MBA in Marketing, Finance and Organizational Behavior from Northwestern University.

CEO Compensation
  • Matt's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
  • Matt's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Harley-Davidson management team in years:

6.7
Average Tenure
55.5
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Harley-Davidson management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Management Team

Matt Levatich

TITLE
President
COMPENSATION
$9M
AGE
54
TENURE
4.2 yrs

John Olin

TITLE
Senior VP & CFO
COMPENSATION
$4M
AGE
58
TENURE
9.8 yrs

Paul Jones

TITLE
VP, Chief Legal Officer
COMPENSATION
$2M
AGE
48
TENURE
3.4 yrs

Larry Hund

TITLE
President & COO of Harley-Davidson Financial Services
COMPENSATION
$3M
AGE
63

Mark Kornetzke

TITLE
Chief Accounting Officer
TENURE
10.2 yrs

Shannon Burns

TITLE
Director of Investor Relations

Joanne Bischmann

TITLE
VP & Chief Communications Officer
AGE
57
TENURE
9.2 yrs

Julie Anding

TITLE
VP & Chief Human Resources Officer
AGE
50
TENURE
0.5 yrs

Ray Drea

TITLE
Chief Stylist

Mike Kennedy

TITLE
VP & MD of Americas
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Harley-Davidson board of directors in years:

3.8
Average Tenure
56
Average Age
  • The tenure for the Harley-Davidson board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors

Mike Cave

TITLE
Non-Executive Chairman
COMPENSATION
$395K
AGE
58
TENURE
3.3 yrs

Matt Levatich

TITLE
President
COMPENSATION
$9M
AGE
54
TENURE
4.4 yrs

Tom Linebarger

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$255K
AGE
56
TENURE
11 yrs

Troy Alstead

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$255K
AGE
56
TENURE
2.4 yrs

Sara Levinson

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$235K
AGE
68
TENURE
23.4 yrs

Jochen Zeitz

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$250K
AGE
56
TENURE
11.9 yrs

R. Anderson

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$235K
AGE
68
TENURE
8.8 yrs

Brian Niccol

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$235K
AGE
45
TENURE
3 yrs

Maryrose Sylvester

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$240K
AGE
54
TENURE
3 yrs

Allan Golston

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$343K
AGE
52
TENURE
2.4 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • Harley-Davidson individual insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price ($) Value ($)
31. May 19 Sell Jochen Zeitz Individual 29. May 19 29. May 19 -2,227 $33.05 $-73,591
08. Aug 18 Sell Jochen Zeitz Individual 06. Aug 18 06. Aug 18 -1,598 $43.50 $-69,507
X
Management checks
We assess Harley-Davidson's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Harley-Davidson has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

News

Simply Wall St News

Is Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) A High Quality Stock To Own?

The formula for ROE is: Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity Or for Harley-Davidson: 27% = US$485m ÷ US$1.8b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2019.) Most readers would understand what net profit is, but it’s worth explaining the concept of shareholders’ equity. … Combining Harley-Davidson's Debt And Its 27% Return On Equity It appears that Harley-Davidson makes extensive use of debt to improve its returns, because it has a relatively high debt to equity ratio of 4.07. … A company that can achieve a high return on equity without debt could be considered a high quality business.

Simply Wall St -

Does Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) CEO Pay Matter?

This report will, first, examine the CEO compensation levels in comparison to CEO compensation at companies of similar size. … Check out our latest analysis for Harley-Davidson How Does Matt Levatich's Compensation Compare With Similar Sized Companies? … If you think CEO compensation levels are interesting you will probably really like this free visualization of insider trading at Harley-Davidson.

Simply Wall St -

Who Has Been Selling Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Shares?

So shareholders might well want to know whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in Harley-Davidson, Inc. … As Peter Lynch said, 'insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise.' See our latest analysis for Harley-Davidson The Last 12 Months Of Insider Transactions At Harley-Davidson In the last twelve months, the biggest single sale by an insider was when the Independent Director, Jochen Zeitz, sold US$70k worth of shares at a price of US$43.50 per share. … Insider Ownership For a common shareholder, it is worth checking how many shares are held by company insiders.

Simply Wall St -

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Is A Real Dividend Rock Star - Here Is Why

Over the past 10 years, the US$5.9b market cap company has been growing its dividend payments, from $0.40 to $1.5. … Currently yielding 4.0%, let's take a closer look at Harley-Davidson's dividend profile. … reliable and steady dividend over the past decade, at a rate that is competitive relative to the other dividend-paying companies on the market

Simply Wall St -

Why We’re Not Impressed By Harley-Davidson, Inc.’s (NYSE:HOG) 12% ROCE

To be precise, we'll consider its Return On Capital Employed (ROCE), as that will inform our view of the quality of the business. … Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What is it? … ROCE measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business.

Simply Wall St -

What Does Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) Share Price Indicate?

As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock? … Today I will analyse the most recent data on Harley-Davidson’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists

Simply Wall St -

Can Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) ROE Continue To Surpass The Industry Average?

This article is for those who would like to learn about Return On Equity (ROE). … One way to conceptualize this, is that for each $1 of shareholders' equity it has, the company made $0.30 in profit. … Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity

Simply Wall St -

If You Had Bought Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Stock Five Years Ago, You'd Be Sitting On A 48% Loss, Today

By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time. … During the five years over which the share price declined, Harley-Davidson's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 0.6% each year. … Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 12% per year, over the period.

Simply Wall St -

Is Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) A Smart Pick For Income Investors?

The stock currently pays out a dividend yield of 4.0%, and has a market cap of US$5.9b. … Let's dig deeper into whether Harley-Davidson should have a place in your portfolio. … 5 checks you should use to assess a dividend stock

Simply Wall St -

What Should Investors Know About Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) Growth?

Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) announced its latest earnings update in December 2018, whicha … signalled

Simply Wall St -

Company Info

Description

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells on-road Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, general merchandise, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and motorcycle parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses the Harley-Davidson brand to third-party financial institutions. The company was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Details
Name: Harley-Davidson, Inc.
HOG
Exchange: NYSE
Founded: 1903
$5,757,458,674
157,178,779
Website: http://www.harley-davidson.com
Address: Harley-Davidson, Inc.
3700 West Juneau Avenue,
Milwaukee,
Wisconsin, 53208,
United States
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
NYSE HOG Common Stock New York Stock Exchange US USD 08. Jul 1986
DB HAR Common Stock Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 08. Jul 1986
XTRA HAR Common Stock XETRA Trading Platform DE EUR 08. Jul 1986
LSE 0QYY Common Stock London Stock Exchange GB USD 08. Jul 1986
WBAG HOG Common Stock Wiener Boerse AG AT EUR 08. Jul 1986
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
5,900
Harley-Davidson employees.
Industry
Motorcycle Manufacturers
Automobiles
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/07/14 23:37
End of day share price update: 2019/07/12 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/07/12
Last earnings filing: 2019/05/09
Last earnings reported: 2019/03/31
Last annual earnings reported: 2018/12/31


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.