NYSE:HOG

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles.

Snowflake

Fundamentals

Undervalued established dividend payer.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Harley-Davidson's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events


Market Performance


7 Day Return

5.3%

HOG

0.2%

US Auto

1.0%

US Market


1 Year Return

-4.3%

HOG

4.6%

US Auto

8.0%

US Market

Return vs Industry: HOG underperformed the US Auto industry which returned 4.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: HOG underperformed the US Market which returned 8% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

HOGIndustryMarket
7 Day5.3%0.2%1.0%
30 Day5.1%0.6%-0.07%
90 Day1.6%-8.1%-1.0%
1 Year-0.2%-4.3%7.5%4.6%10.4%8.0%
3 Year-28.2%-35.1%23.4%11.2%46.2%36.7%
5 Year-31.9%-41.5%8.5%-8.5%64.3%46.2%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Harley-Davidson's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Harley-Davidson undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

40.6%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: HOG ($37.08) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($62.43)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HOG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: HOG is good value based on its PE Ratio (13.7x) compared to the Auto industry average (16.6x).

PE vs Market: HOG is good value based on its PE Ratio (13.7x) compared to the US market (17.6x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: HOG is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.6x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: HOG is good value based on its PB Ratio (3x) compared to the US Auto industry average (3.1x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Harley-Davidson forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 14 analysts?

8.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: HOG's forecast earnings growth (8.7% per year) is above the savings rate (2.7%).

Earnings vs Market: HOG's earnings (8.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: HOG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: HOG's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-0.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: HOG's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.7% per year).


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: HOG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (28.3%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Harley-Davidson performed over the past 5 years?

-13.4%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: HOG's earnings have declined by -13.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: HOG's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: HOG had negative earnings growth (-11.3%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Auto industry average (-11.3%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst HOG's Return on Equity (22.92%) is high, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.


Return on Assets

ROA vs Industry: HOG has a higher Return on Assets than the Auto industry average last year.


Return on Capital Employed

ROCE Improving: HOG's Return on Capital Employed has declined over the past 3 years.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Harley-Davidson's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: HOG's short term assets ($4.3B) exceeds its short term liabilities ($3.7B)

Long Term Liabilities: HOG's short term assets (4.3B) do not cover its long term liabilities (5.1B)


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: HOG's debt to equity ratio (390.7%) is considered high

Reducing Debt: HOG's debt to equity ratio has increased from 159.3% to 390.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: HOG's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (12.9%).

Interest Coverage: HOG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (27.8x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: HOG has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: HOG's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.6x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Harley-Davidson's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

4.05%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company4.0%marketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage4.0%forecastin3Years4.1%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry


Stability and Growth of Payments

Notable Dividend: HOG's dividend (4.05%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.44%).

High Dividend: HOG's dividend (4.05%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.68%)

Stable Dividend: HOG's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: HOG's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (55%), HOG's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: HOG's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (40.7% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Harley-Davidson's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

9.4yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Matt Levatich (54yo)

4.4yrs

Tenure

US$9,149,692

Compensation

Mr. Matthew S. Levatich, also known as Matt, has been the Chief Executive Officer since May 1, 2015 and is its President. He served as President of Harley-Davidson, Inc. since May 1, 2015. Mr. Levatich ser ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs. Market: Matt's total compensation ($USD9.15M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.88M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Matt's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

9.4yrs

Average Tenure

55.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: HOG's management team is seasoned and experienced (9.4 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

4.1yrs

Average Tenure

56yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: HOG's board of directors are considered experienced (4.1 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: HOG insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

SellUS$156,53229 Jul 19
Mark Kornetzke
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Accounting Officer
Chief Accounting Officer
Shares4,348
Max PriceUS$36.00
SellUS$417,78226 Jul 19
Paul Jones
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Compliance Officer
VP, Chief Legal Officer
Shares11,884
Max PriceUS$35.51
SellUS$73,59131 May 19
Jochen Zeitz
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares2,227
Max PriceUS$33.05

Ownership Breakdown


Management Team

  • Joanne Bischmann (57yo)

    VP & Chief Communications Officer

    • Tenure: 9.4yrs
  • Larry Hund (63yo)

    President & COO of Harley-Davidson Financial Services

    • Tenure: 0yrs
    • Compensation: US$3.35m
  • Matt Levatich (54yo)

    President

    • Tenure: 4.4yrs
    • Compensation: US$9.15m
  • Paul Jones (48yo)

    VP, Chief Legal Officer

    • Tenure: 0yrs
    • Compensation: US$2.27m
  • John Olin (58yo)

    Senior VP & CFO

    • Tenure: 10.1yrs
    • Compensation: US$3.58m
  • Mark Kornetzke

    Chief Accounting Officer

    • Tenure: 10.4yrs
  • Ray Drea

    Chief Stylist

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Mike Kennedy

    VP & MD of Americas

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Shannon Burns

    Director of Investor Relations

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Julie Anding (50yo)

    VP & Chief Human Resources Officer

    • Tenure: 0.8yrs

Board Members

  • Tom Linebarger (56yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 11.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$255.00k
  • Sara Levinson (68yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 23.7yrs
    • Compensation: US$235.00k
  • Jochen Zeitz (56yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 12.2yrs
    • Compensation: US$250.00k
  • Mike Cave (58yo)

    Non-Executive Chairman

    • Tenure: 3.5yrs
    • Compensation: US$395.00k
  • R. Anderson (68yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 9yrs
    • Compensation: US$235.00k
  • Troy Alstead (56yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 2.7yrs
    • Compensation: US$255.00k
  • Maryrose Sylvester (54yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 3.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$240.00k
  • Allan Golston (52yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 2.7yrs
    • Compensation: US$343.48k
  • Matt Levatich (54yo)

    President

    • Tenure: 4.4yrs
    • Compensation: US$9.15m
  • Brian Niccol (45yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 3.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$235.00k

Company Information

Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Harley-Davidson, Inc.
  • Ticker: HOG
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1903
  • Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers
  • Sector: Automobiles
  • Market Cap: US$5.741b
  • Shares outstanding: 154.84m
  • Website: https://www.harley-davidson.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Harley-Davidson, Inc.
  • 3700 West Juneau Avenue
  • Milwaukee
  • Wisconsin
  • 53208
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
HOGNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDJul 1986
HARDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURJul 1986
HARXTRA (XETRA Trading Platform)YesCommon StockDEEURJul 1986
0QYYLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockGBUSDJul 1986
HOGWBAG (Wiener Boerse AG)YesCommon StockATEURJul 1986

Biography

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Rel ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/10/21 23:37
End of Day Share Price2019/10/21 00:00
Earnings2019/06/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.