NYSE:HOG

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles.

Snowflake

Fundamentals

Undervalued established dividend payer.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Harley-Davidson's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-3.0%

NYSE:HOG

-1.1%

US Auto

0.8%

US Market


1 Year Return

-23.4%

NYSE:HOG

-7.2%

US Auto

1.9%

US Market

HOG underperformed the Auto industry which returned -7.2% over the past year.

HOG underperformed the Market in United States of America which returned 1.9% over the past year.


Share holder returns

HOGIndustryMarket
7 Day-3.0%-1.1%0.8%
30 Day6.4%3.9%3.4%
90 Day-3.8%1.3%2.1%
1 Year-20.1%-23.4%-4.6%-7.2%4.2%1.9%
3 Year-26.9%-33.9%25.4%13.5%46.7%37.2%
5 Year-33.9%-43.2%0.7%-15.2%62.3%44.5%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Harley-Davidson's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Harley-Davidson undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

43%

Discount to future cash flow value


Intrinsic Value Based on Future Cash Flows

Harley-Davidson's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).

Harley-Davidson's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).


Price Based on Earnings

Harley-Davidson is good value based on earnings compared to the US Auto industry average.

Harley-Davidson is good value based on earnings compared to the United States of America market.


Price Based on Expected Growth

Harley-Davidson is poor value based on expected growth next year.


Price Based on Value of Assets

Harley-Davidson is good value based on assets compared to the US Auto industry average.


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Harley-Davidson expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 15 analysts?

7.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Estimates


Future Annual Growth Analysis

Harley-Davidson's revenue is expected to grow by 0.2% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).

Harley-Davidson's earnings are expected to grow by 7.9% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).

Harley-Davidson's revenue growth is positive but not above the United States of America market average.

Harley-Davidson's earnings growth is positive but not above the United States of America market average.

Harley-Davidson's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.7%.


Earnings per Share Growth Estimates


Future Return on Equity

Harley-Davidson is expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity greater than 20%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Harley-Davidson performed over the past 5 years?

-13.4%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Harley-Davidson's year on year earnings growth rate was negative over the past 5 years and the most recent earnings are below average.

Harley-Davidson's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the 5-year average.

Harley-Davidson's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the US Auto industry average.


Return on Equity

Whilst Harley-Davidson has efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity greater than 20%), this is metric is skewed due to its high level of debt.


Return on Assets

Harley-Davidson used its assets more efficiently than the US Auto industry average last year based on Return on Assets.


Return on Capital Employed

Harley-Davidson's use of capital deteriorated last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Harley-Davidson's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Harley-Davidson is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.

Harley-Davidson's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Harley-Davidson's level of debt (390.7%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).

The level of debt compared to net worth has increased over the past 5 years (159.3% vs 390.7% today).

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (12.9%, less than 20% of total debt).

Interest payments on debt are well covered by earnings (EBIT is 27.8x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Low level of unsold assets.

Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0.6x debt.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Harley-Davidson's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

4.41%

Expected Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield and Payments Analysis

Harley-Davidson's pays a higher dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (1.44%).

Harley-Davidson's dividend is above the markets top 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (3.69%).

Dividends per share have been volatile in the past 10 years (annual drop of over 20%).

Dividends per share have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividends paid are covered by earnings (1.8x coverage).


Future Payout to Shareholders

Dividends after 3 years are expected to be well covered by earnings (2.5x coverage).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Harley-Davidson's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

6.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Matt Levatich (54yo)

4.3yrs

Tenure

US$9,149,692

Compensation

Mr. Matthew S. Levatich, also known as Matt, has been the Chief Executive Officer since May 1, 2015 and is its President. He served as President of Harley-Davidson, Inc. since May 1, 2015. Mr. Levatich ser ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Matt's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.

Matt's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.


Management Age and Tenure

6.8yrs

Average Tenure

55.5yo

Average Age

The average tenure for the Harley-Davidson management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.


Board Age and Tenure

4.0yrs

Average Tenure

56yo

Average Age

The tenure for the Harley-Davidson board of directors is about average.


Insider Trading

Harley-Davidson individual insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

SellUS$156,53229 Jul 19
Mark Kornetzke
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Accounting Officer
Chief Accounting Officer
Shares4,348
Max PriceUS$36.00
SellUS$417,78226 Jul 19
Paul Jones
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Legal Officer
VP, Chief Legal Officer
Shares11,884
Max PriceUS$35.51
SellUS$73,59131 May 19
Jochen Zeitz
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares2,227
Max PriceUS$33.05

Ownership Breakdown


Management Team

  • Joanne Bischmann (57yo)

    VP & Chief Communications Officer

    • Tenure: 9.3yrs
  • Larry Hund (63yo)

    President & COO of Harley-Davidson Financial Services

    • Tenure: 0yrs
    • Compensation: US$3.35m
  • Matt Levatich (54yo)

    President

    • Tenure: 4.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$9.15m
  • Paul Jones (48yo)

    VP, Chief Legal Officer

    • Tenure: 3.6yrs
    • Compensation: US$2.27m
  • John Olin (58yo)

    Senior VP & CFO

    • Tenure: 10yrs
    • Compensation: US$3.58m
  • Mark Kornetzke

    Chief Accounting Officer

    • Tenure: 10.3yrs
  • Ray Drea

    Chief Stylist

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Mike Kennedy

    VP & MD of Americas

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Shannon Burns

    Director of Investor Relations

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Julie Anding (50yo)

    VP & Chief Human Resources Officer

    • Tenure: 0.7yrs

Board Members

  • Tom Linebarger (56yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 11.2yrs
    • Compensation: US$255.00k
  • Sara Levinson (68yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 23.6yrs
    • Compensation: US$235.00k
  • Jochen Zeitz (56yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 12.1yrs
    • Compensation: US$250.00k
  • Mike Cave (58yo)

    Non-Executive Chairman

    • Tenure: 3.4yrs
    • Compensation: US$395.00k
  • R. Anderson (68yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 8.9yrs
    • Compensation: US$235.00k
  • Troy Alstead (56yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 2.6yrs
    • Compensation: US$255.00k
  • Maryrose Sylvester (54yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 3.2yrs
    • Compensation: US$240.00k
  • Allan Golston (52yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 2.6yrs
    • Compensation: US$343.48k
  • Matt Levatich (54yo)

    President

    • Tenure: 4.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$9.15m
  • Brian Niccol (45yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 3.2yrs
    • Compensation: US$235.00k

Company Information

Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Harley-Davidson, Inc.
  • Ticker: HOG
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1903
  • Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers
  • Sector: Automobiles
  • Market Cap: US$5.362b
  • Shares outstanding: 154.84m
  • Website: https://www.harley-davidson.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Harley-Davidson, Inc.
  • 3700 West Juneau Avenue
  • Milwaukee
  • Wisconsin
  • 53208
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
HOGNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDJul 1986
HARDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURJul 1986
HARXTRA (XETRA Trading Platform)YesCommon StockDEEURJul 1986
0QYYLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockGBUSDJul 1986
HOGWBAG (Wiener Boerse AG)YesCommon StockATEURJul 1986

Biography

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Rel ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/09/18 23:36
End of Day Share Price2019/09/18 00:00
Earnings2019/06/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.