NYSE:HOG

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles.


Snowflake Analysis

6 star dividend payer and undervalued.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Harley-Davidson's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: HOG's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-7.9%

HOG

0.7%

US Auto

5.3%

US Market


1 Year Return

-50.1%

HOG

-0.8%

US Auto

-10.7%

US Market

Return vs Industry: HOG underperformed the US Auto industry which returned -0.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: HOG underperformed the US Market which returned -10.7% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

HOGIndustryMarket
7 Day-7.9%0.7%5.3%
30 Day-39.1%-24.5%-13.6%
90 Day-49.0%-15.2%-19.8%
1 Year-47.9%-50.1%2.1%-0.8%-8.9%-10.7%
3 Year-64.7%-68.5%7.7%-1.3%15.5%8.0%
5 Year-64.2%-69.6%8.2%-10.2%35.2%20.4%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Harley-Davidson's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Harley-Davidson undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: HOG ($18.93) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($42.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HOG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: HOG is good value based on its PE Ratio (7x) compared to the Auto industry average (11.4x).

PE vs Market: HOG is good value based on its PE Ratio (7x) compared to the US market (13.1x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: HOG is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (5.2x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: HOG is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.6x) compared to the US Auto industry average (2.2x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Harley-Davidson forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 14 analysts?

1.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: HOG's forecast earnings growth (1.3% per year) is below the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: HOG's earnings (1.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: HOG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: HOG's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-7.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: HOG's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-7.7% per year).


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: HOG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (21%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Harley-Davidson performed over the past 5 years?

-14.4%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: HOG has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: HOG's current net profit margins (7.9%) are lower than last year (9.3%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: HOG's earnings have declined by -14.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: HOG's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: HOG had negative earnings growth (-20.3%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Auto industry average (-14.5%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst HOG's Return on Equity (23.48%) is high, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Harley-Davidson's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: HOG's short term assets ($4.2B) exceed its short term liabilities ($3.2B).

Long Term Liabilities: HOG's short term assets ($4.2B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($5.5B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: HOG's debt to equity ratio (413.2%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: HOG's debt to equity ratio has increased from 189.4% to 413.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: HOG's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (11.6%).

Interest Coverage: HOG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (41.9x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: HOG has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: HOG's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.6x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Harley-Davidson's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

8.03%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: HOG's dividend (8.03%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.95%).

High Dividend: HOG's dividend (8.03%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (5.37%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: HOG's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: HOG's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (55.6%), HOG's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: HOG's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (38.5% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.6yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Jochen Zeitz (56yo)

0.17

Tenure

US$250,000

Compensation

Mr. Jochen Zeitz is the Founder of The Zeitz Foundation. He has been Chairman, Acting President and CEO of Harley-Davidson, Inc. since February 2020. Mr. Zeitz served as the Chief Sustainability Officer of ...


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Jochen Zeitz
Chairman0.17yrUS$250.00kno data
John Olin
Senior VP & CFO10.58yrsUS$3.58m0.046% $1.3m
Lawrence Hund
President & COO of Harley-Davidson Financial Servicesno dataUS$3.35m0.014% $404.5k
Mark Kornetzke
Chief Accounting Officer10.92yrsno data0.0035% $98.8k
Shannon Burns
Director of Investor Relationsno datano datano data
Paul Krause
Chief Legal Officer0.42yrno datano data
Joanne Bischmann
VP & Chief Communications Officer9.92yrsno data0.0062% $178.1k
Julie Anding
VP & Chief Human Resources Officer1.25yrsno data0.0033% $94.8k
Ray Drea
Chief Stylistno datano datano data
Michael Kennedy
VP & MD of Americasno datano datano data

5.6yrs

Average Tenure

57yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: HOG's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.6 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Jochen Zeitz
Chairman0.17yrUS$250.00kno data
N. Linebarger
Independent Director11.75yrsUS$255.00k0.00044% $12.6k
Sara Levinson
Independent Director24.17yrsUS$235.00k0.0032% $91.6k
Michael Cave
Presiding Director0.17yrUS$395.00k0.019% $534.4k
R. Anderson
Independent Director9.5yrsUS$235.00k0.0015% $43.1k
Troy Alstead
Independent Director3.17yrsUS$255.00k0.0076% $215.5k
Maryrose Sylvester
Independent Director3.75yrsUS$240.00k0.010% $287.5k
Allan Golston
Independent Director3.17yrsUS$343.48k0.0073% $208.4k
Brian Niccol
Independent Director3.75yrsUS$235.00k0.0099% $283.5k

3.8yrs

Average Tenure

56yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: HOG's board of directors are considered experienced (3.8 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Harley-Davidson, Inc.
  • Ticker: HOG
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1903
  • Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers
  • Sector: Automobiles
  • Market Cap: US$2.855b
  • Shares outstanding: 150.80m
  • Website: https://www.harley-davidson.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Harley-Davidson, Inc.
  • 3700 West Juneau Avenue
  • Milwaukee
  • Wisconsin
  • 53208
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
HOGNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDJul 1986
HARDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURJul 1986
HARXTRA (XETRA Trading Platform)YesCommon StockDEEURJul 1986
HOGSWX (SIX Swiss Exchange)YesCommon StockCHCHFJul 1986
0QYYLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockGBUSDJul 1986
HARETLX (Eurotlx)YesCommon StockITEURJul 1986
HOGWBAG (Wiener Boerse AG)YesCommon StockATEURJul 1986
HOG *BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)YesCommon StockMXMXNJul 1986

Biography

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells on-road Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, general merchandise, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses the Harley-Davidson brand to third-party financial institutions. The company was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/04/01 12:11
End of Day Share Price2020/03/31 00:00
Earnings2019/12/31
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.