Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles. More Details
Imperfect balance sheet and overvalued.
Share Price & News
How has Harley-Davidson's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?
Latest Share Price and Events
Stable Share Price: HOG is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.
Volatility Over Time: HOG's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.
7 Day Return
1 Year Return
Return vs Industry: HOG underperformed the US Auto industry which returned 189% over the past year.
Return vs Market: HOG exceeded the US Market which returned 44.2% over the past year.
Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market
How volatile is Harley-Davidson's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?
Simply Wall St News
4 days ago | Simply Wall StA Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG)
2 weeks ago | Simply Wall StIs Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Using Too Much Debt?
4 weeks ago | Simply Wall StHarley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Is Finding It Tricky To Allocate Its Capital
Is Harley-Davidson undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?
Price to Earnings (PE) ratio
Share Price vs. Fair Value
Below Fair Value: HOG ($47.4) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($43.29)
Significantly Below Fair Value: HOG is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Price To Earnings Ratio
PE vs Industry: HOG is poor value based on its PE Ratio (38.1x) compared to the US Auto industry average (26.7x).
PE vs Market: HOG is poor value based on its PE Ratio (38.1x) compared to the US market (19.7x).
Price to Earnings Growth Ratio
PEG Ratio: HOG is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (2.7x)
Price to Book Ratio
PB vs Industry: HOG is good value based on its PB Ratio (3.7x) compared to the US Auto industry average (4.4x).
How is Harley-Davidson forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 12 analysts?
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: HOG's forecast earnings growth (14.3% per year) is above the savings rate (2%).
Earnings vs Market: HOG's earnings (14.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (15.5% per year).
High Growth Earnings: HOG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: HOG's revenue (5.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (9.2% per year).
High Growth Revenue: HOG's revenue (5.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: HOG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (19.3%).
How has Harley-Davidson performed over the past 5 years?
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: HOG has a large one-off loss of $124.3M impacting its March 28 2021 financial results.
Growing Profit Margin: HOG's current net profit margins (4.6%) are lower than last year (6.9%).
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: HOG's earnings have declined by 27% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: HOG's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: HOG had negative earnings growth (-47.9%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Auto industry average (26.1%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: HOG's Return on Equity (9.7%) is considered low.
How is Harley-Davidson's financial position?
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: HOG's short term assets ($5.2B) exceed its short term liabilities ($3.5B).
Long Term Liabilities: HOG's short term assets ($5.2B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($5.9B).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: HOG's debt to equity ratio (398%) is considered high.
Reducing Debt: HOG's debt to equity ratio has increased from 375.2% to 398% over the past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: HOG's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (17.2%).
Interest Coverage: HOG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (17x coverage).
What is Harley-Davidson current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Current Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: HOG's dividend (0.17%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.26%).
High Dividend: HOG's dividend (0.17%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.35%).
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: HOG is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.
Growing Dividend: HOG is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.
Current Payout to Shareholders
Dividend Coverage: HOG is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.
Future Payout to Shareholders
Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of HOG's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
Average management tenure
Jochen Zeitz (57 yo)
Mr. Jochen Zeitz is the Founder of The Zeitz Foundation. He has been Chairman of Harley-Davidson, Inc. since February 2020. Mr. Zeitz serves as President and Chief Executive Officer at Harley-Davidson, Inc...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Jochen's total compensation ($USD10.45M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.50M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Jochen's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.
Experienced Management: HOG's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.
Experienced Board: HOG's board of directors are considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
- Name: Harley-Davidson, Inc.
- Ticker: HOG
- Exchange: NYSE
- Founded: 1903
- Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers
- Sector: Automobiles
- Market Cap: US$7.284b
- Shares outstanding: 153.67m
- Website: https://www.harley-davidson.com
Number of Employees
- Harley-Davidson, Inc.
- 3700 West Juneau Avenue
- United States
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Rel...
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
|Data||Last Updated (UTC time)|
|Company Analysis||2021/06/12 14:24|
|End of Day Share Price||2021/06/11 00:00|
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.