The Bull Case For Harley-Davidson (HOG) Could Change Following Strong Q3 Results and Dividend Affirmation

• On November 25, 2025, Harley-Davidson's Board of Directors affirmed a cash dividend of US$0.18 per share for the fourth quarter, payable on December 22 to shareholders of record as of December 9.
• This consistent dividend, paired with third quarter earnings and revenue surpassing analyst expectations, highlights continued stability and shareholder-focused financial performance for Harley-Davidson.
• Next, we'll consider how Harley-Davidson's stronger-than-expected earnings might influence analyst views on long-term profitability and growth initiatives.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Harley-Davidson Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Harley-Davidson shareholder, you need to believe in the company’s ability to adapt to evolving consumer trends, revitalize demand for heavyweight motorcycles, and maintain brand relevance despite macro headwinds. The recent fourth-quarter dividend affirmation and earnings beat add to perceptions of near-term stability but do not fundamentally alter the key risk of continued pressure on core revenue growth from weak global motorcycle sales and shifting customer demographics.

Among Harley-Davidson’s recent announcements, the launch of new 2026 motorcycle models stands out as most relevant, aligning with efforts to energize its product lineup and appeal to new buyers. This initiative remains closely tied to key catalysts involving product innovation and brand engagement, viewed as important steps to counteract demand softness and broaden the customer base.

By contrast, investors should also be aware of Harley-Davidson's exposure to declining global motorcycle retail sales, especially as...

Read the full narrative on Harley-Davidson (it's free!)

Harley-Davidson's outlook projects $3.9 billion in revenue and $390.5 million in earnings by 2028. This reflects a 4.4% annual revenue decline and a $147.7 million increase in earnings from the current $242.8 million.

Uncover how Harley-Davidson's forecasts yield a $28.33 fair value, a 16% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members estimate Harley-Davidson’s fair value between US$19 and US$47.94, with 5 different views reflected in this range. You can see how the risk of persistent weak demand, especially in traditional markets, weighs on the outlook and why it may be useful to compare such diverse opinions.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Harley-Davidson - why the stock might be worth as much as 96% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Harley-Davidson Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Harley-Davidson research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Harley-Davidson research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Harley-Davidson's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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