Estimating The Fair Value Of Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG)

Today I will be providing a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG) as an investment opportunity by taking the foreast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today’s value. This is done using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. Please also note that this article was written in November 2018 so be sure check out the updated calculation by following the link below.

Crunching the numbers

I’m using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have perpetual stable growth rate. To begin with we have to get estimates of the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount the sum of these cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate.

5-year cash flow estimate

 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Levered FCF (\$, Millions) \$704.03 \$716.00 \$735.00 \$755.50 \$740.56 Source Analyst x7 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Est @ -1.98% Present Value Discounted @ 11.34% \$632.30 \$577.54 \$532.46 \$491.55 \$432.74

Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US\$2.7b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.9%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 11.3%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US\$741m × (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (11.3% – 2.9%) = US\$9.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = US\$9.1b ÷ ( 1 + 11.3%)5 = US\$5.3b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US\$8.0b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of \$48.34. Compared to the current share price of \$39.8, the stock is about right, perhaps slightly undervalued at a 18% discount to what it is available for right now.

The assumptions

I’d like to point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at Harley-Davidson as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 11.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.191. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For HOG, I’ve compiled three fundamental aspects you should further examine:

1. Financial Health: Does HOG have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
2. Future Earnings: How does HOG’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of HOG? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every US stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.