We Think General Motors (NYSE:GM) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

By
Simply Wall St
Published
June 05, 2021
NYSE:GM
Source: Shutterstock

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for General Motors

What Is General Motors's Net Debt?

As you can see below, General Motors had US$110.8b of debt at March 2021, down from US$127.0b a year prior. However, it does have US$23.1b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$87.7b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NYSE:GM Debt to Equity History June 6th 2021

How Strong Is General Motors' Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that General Motors had liabilities of US$76.3b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$107.6b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$23.1b as well as receivables valued at US$9.13b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$151.8b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$91.9b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, General Motors would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Strangely General Motors has a sky high EBITDA ratio of 5.5, implying high debt, but a strong interest coverage of 11.2. This means that unless the company has access to very cheap debt, that interest expense will likely grow in the future. It is well worth noting that General Motors's EBIT shot up like bamboo after rain, gaining 57% in the last twelve months. That'll make it easier to manage its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if General Motors can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, General Motors burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

To be frank both General Motors's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, we think it's fair to say that General Motors has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for General Motors you should be aware of.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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