Ford Motor (NYSE:F) - Share price, News & Analysis

F fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	6/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	4/6

F Stock Overview

Ford Motor Company designs, manufactures, markets, and services a range of Ford trucks, cars, sport utility vehicles, electrified vehicles, and Lincoln luxury vehicles worldwide.

Rewards

Trading at 68% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 16.55% per year

Earnings grew by 190.9% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Unstable dividend track record

Ford Motor Competitors

Tesla

NasdaqGS:TSLA

US$687.8b

General Motors

NYSE:GM

US$51.6b

Ferrari

NYSE:RACE

US$34.6b

Rivian Automotive

NasdaqGS:RIVN

US$26.0b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Ford Motor
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$12.50
52 Week High	US$25.87
52 Week Low	US$12.07
Beta	1.15
1 Month Change	-20.38%
3 Month Change	-30.71%
1 Year Change	-6.23%
3 Year Change	27.16%
5 Year Change	14.36%
Change since IPO	-3.43%

Recent News & Updates

May 20

Does Ford Motor (NYSE:F) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...

May 16

Ford Sells Second Batch Of Rivian Shares, A Vote Of No Confidence For The Fledgling EV Maker

Rivian has disappointed backers partly due to its own mistakes and partly due to supply problems beyond its control. Ford appears, since its initial investment, to have pivoted its strategic thesis on Rivian and will likely continue to sell shares opportunistically. Rivian shares may seem like a bargain to enthusiasts for the EV revolution. The reality is more likely a "value trap." Surviving in an overly crowded field of EV makers will be an issue for Rivian.

May 10

Lightning Strikes, Ford Is Destined To Double

Ford's stock is nose diving as I write this article. The stock is down over 4% today alone and 31% year to date. Even so, the entire market is selling off on the whole. All the major averages are deep in the red. Nonetheless, a selloff based on macro factors often creates opportunities to buy stock in solid companies with sound prospects. I submit Ford's stock presents an excellent long-term buying opportunity. Ford’s stock is destined to double as the F150 Lightning electrifies the market in the coming years. However, there is a fine art to catching falling knives. In the following piece, I present the Winter Warrior method for creating new positions during times of extreme market duress.

May 05

Here's Why We Think Ford Motor (NYSE:F) Is Well Worth Watching

It's only natural that many investors, especially those who are new to the game, prefer to buy shares in 'sexy' stocks...

Shareholder Returns

	F	US Auto	US Market
7D	-7.4%	-10.3%	-2.7%
1Y	-6.2%	-1.2%	-12.9%

Return vs Industry: F underperformed the US Auto industry which returned -1.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: F exceeded the US Market which returned -12.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is F's price volatile compared to industry and market?
F volatility
F Average Weekly Movement	7.0%
Auto Industry Average Movement	15.3%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: F is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: F's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1903	183,000	Jim Farley	https://www.ford.com

Ford Motor Company designs, manufactures, markets, and services a range of Ford trucks, cars, sport utility vehicles, electrified vehicles, and Lincoln luxury vehicles worldwide. It operates through three segments: Automotive, Mobility, and Ford Credit. The Automotive segment sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments.

Ford Motor Fundamentals Summary

How do Ford Motor's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
F fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$50.25b
Earnings (TTM)	US$11.57b
Revenue (TTM)	US$134.59b

4.3x

P/E Ratio

0.4x

P/S Ratio

Is F overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
F income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$134.59b
Cost of Revenue	US$114.39b
Gross Profit	US$15.28b
Other Expenses	US$3.72b
Earnings	US$11.57b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Jul 27, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.88
Gross Margin	11.36%
Net Profit Margin	8.59%
Debt/Equity Ratio	300.8%

How did F perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.2%

Current Dividend Yield

7%

Payout Ratio

Valuation

Is Ford Motor undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: F ($12.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($39.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: F is good value based on its PE Ratio (4.3x) compared to the US Auto industry average (12.9x).

PE vs Market: F is good value based on its PE Ratio (4.3x) compared to the US market (15.3x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: F is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.3x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: F is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.1x) compared to the US Auto industry average (2.9x).

Future Growth

How is Ford Motor forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 17 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

16.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: F's forecast earnings growth (16.5% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: F's earnings (16.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (12.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: F's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: F's revenue (5.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: F's revenue (5.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: F's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.8%).

Past Performance

How has Ford Motor performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

4.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: F has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: F's current net profit margins (8.6%) are higher than last year (3.1%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: F's earnings have grown by 4.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: F's earnings growth over the past year (190.9%) exceeds its 5-year average (4.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: F earnings growth over the past year (190.9%) exceeded the Auto industry 129.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst F's Return on Equity (25.57%) is high, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.

Financial Health

How is Ford Motor's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: F's short term assets ($106.1B) exceed its short term liabilities ($90.4B).

Long Term Liabilities: F's short term assets ($106.1B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($117.6B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: F's net debt to equity ratio (237.3%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: F's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 474.6% to 300.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: F's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (7.5%).

Interest Coverage: F's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (6.6x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Ford Motor current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

3.20%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: F's dividend (3.2%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.58%).

High Dividend: F's dividend (3.2%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.11%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: F's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: F's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (6.9%), F's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (40.4%), F's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Jim Farley (59 yo)

1.58yrs

Tenure

US$22,813,174

Compensation

Mr. James D. Farley, Jr., also known as Jim, serves as President, Chief Executive Officer and Director at Ford Motor Company since October 1, 2020. He served as Chief Operating Officer at Ford Motor Compan...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Jim's total compensation ($USD22.81M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD13.34M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Jim's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: F's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: F's board of directors are considered experienced (5.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/21 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/20 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31