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TSLA

Tesla NasdaqGS:TSLA Stock Report

Last Price

US$695.20

Market Cap

US$720.5b

7D

1.4%

1Y

7.8%

Updated

06 Jul, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
TSLA fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation0/6
Future Growth6/6
Past Performance6/6
Financial Health6/6
Dividends0/6

TSLA Stock Overview

Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally.

Tesla Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Tesla
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$695.20
52 Week HighUS$1,243.49
52 Week LowUS$620.46
Beta2.13
1 Month Change-2.75%
3 Month Change-34.25%
1 Year Change7.84%
3 Year Change1,354.88%
5 Year Change954.87%
Change since IPO14,450.02%

Recent News & Updates

Jul 04

Tesla: 10-K Footnotes And Bears' Arguments

My favorite Charles Munger quote is not to comment on a topic until I can argue against myself better than the people on the other side. Human nature just loves confirmatory evidence. But in investing, especially investing in nonlinear stocks like Tesla, it is more important to look for disconfirming information. Here, I will argue against my own bull thesis and address some potential risks for Tesla that are not often discussed. The goal is not to dismiss these concerns (they are 100% valid), but to provide a full view so both bears and bulls can all make better investment decisions. Thesis I have been a long-term bull on Tesla (TSLA) as you can see from my previous writings. I have published a series of articles arguing for its nonlinear growth potential. In this article, I will switch perspective and address the bears’ counterargument. The point is not to prove them to be wrong. Quite the opposite, their concerns are 100% valid to me. I am analyzing these concerns not to dismiss their concerns, but to provide a full view, so we can all make an informed decision. An open mind that can work with conflicting views is the starting point for investing, especially for nonlinear stocks like TSLA. And this has been a cornerstone of my own investing philosophy. And it is also a philosophy that my writing and market service always promote. We always value disconfirming information more than confirming information. Charlie Munger was once asked for tips for investors who have to work with two opposing views. And his response quoted below, as usual, is so quotable: Charlie Munger: Well, I do have a tip. At times in my life, I have put myself to a standard that I think has helped me: I think I’m not really equipped to comment on this subject until I can state the arguments against my conclusion better than the people on the other side. If you do that all the time; if you’re looking for disconfirming evidence and putting yourself on a grill, that’s a good way to help remove ignorance. Following this wisdom, let’s play the game of arguing against ourselves. Many of you probably are familiar with the common bears’ view already such as high valuation, competition, carbon credit, et al. So, this article will limit the scope to two concerns (scale of government subsidies and tax incentives) not often discussed, concerns that have to be gleaned mostly from the footnotes or independent disclosures. Government Subsidies First, TSLA’s current financials are dressed up by a multitude of government aids, both from local state, federal, and also overseas. Musk is very vocal against government aid and if you follow his Twitter, you may form the wrong view that TSLA does not benefit from such aid. On the contrary, TSLA benefits extensively from these aids. And given how fickly government policies can change, such aids form a considerable uncertainty for TSLA’s long-term prospects. Take U.S. aid as an example. These aids include federal loans, tax breaks, loan guarantees, bailout assistance, State/Local loans, bond financing, and venture capital. You can see a detailed list of these aids at this link. As of this writing, TSLA receives a total of 110 subsidies with a total face value of more than $2.5B. To put things into perspective, TSLA's 2021 total net income was only $5.6B. These subsidies are not limited to the US alone. They come from overseas markets like Europe and China too, adding a further layer of uncertainties, as elaborated below. Source: Subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org Tax Incentives The following chart shows TSLA’s most recent income statement. The taxes are highlighted. And as you can see, it earned $3.6B of pretax income in the quarter ended on March 31, 2022, and reported a provision for income tax of $346M. So this leads to an effective rate of less than 10% (9.6% to be precise). The picture of last year was very similar: $69M of tax provision on a $533M pretax earnings. The reasons for such low tax rates, as indicated in its Form 10-K, are several temporary tax incentives. For example, China has approved a tax reduction for TSLA from the normal rate of 25% to 15%. The reason for singling out China here is twofold.

Jun 27

Tesla: What's The Outlook After Announced 3-For-1 Stock Split?

Tesla is planning another stock split after completing its last split as recently as 2020. The split will make options more accessible to retail traders, but is otherwise a non-event. Regardless of the split, Tesla remains a high uncertainty stock but is probably trading near fair value today.

Jun 20

Tesla: Incentives Matter

Legacy automakers are incentivized to manufacture ICE vehicles, so they can sell parts after warranties expire. Legacy dealers make much of their gross profit on parts and service, so they're motivated to continue pushing ICE vehicles over EVs. CEO Musk aims to make Tesla compelling by winning on electrification and autonomy.

Shareholder Returns

TSLAUS AutoUS Market
7D1.4%0.8%0.7%
1Y7.8%-7.8%-18.4%

Return vs Industry: TSLA exceeded the US Auto industry which returned -9.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TSLA exceeded the US Market which returned -18.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is TSLA's price volatile compared to industry and market?
TSLA volatility
TSLA Average Weekly Movement10.6%
Auto Industry Average Movement13.4%
Market Average Movement8.2%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.4%

Stable Share Price: TSLA is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 11% a week.

Volatility Over Time: TSLA's weekly volatility (11%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
200399,290Elon Muskhttps://www.tesla.com

Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits.

Tesla Fundamentals Summary

How do Tesla's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
TSLA fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$720.50b
Earnings (TTM)US$8.40b
Revenue (TTM)US$62.19b

85.7x

P/E Ratio

11.6x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
TSLA income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$62.19b
Cost of RevenueUS$45.34b
Gross ProfitUS$16.85b
Other ExpensesUS$8.45b
EarningsUS$8.40b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Jul 20, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)8.11
Gross Margin27.10%
Net Profit Margin13.51%
Debt/Equity Ratio9.7%

How did TSLA perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is TSLA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TSLA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

TSLA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA56x
PEG Ratio3.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TSLA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

TSLA PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for TSLA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.9x
GM General Motors
5.2x5.7%US$45.6b
600104 SAIC Motor
8.5x12.4%CN¥197.3b
7203 Toyota Motor
9.9x5.8%JP¥28.2t
F Ford Motor
3.8x16.5%US$45.0b
TSLA Tesla
85.7x24.7%US$720.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TSLA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (85.7x) compared to the peer average (6.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TSLA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Auto Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TSLA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (85.7x) compared to the US Auto industry average (8.1x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TSLA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TSLA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio85.7x
Fair PE Ratio25.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TSLA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (85.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.3x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TSLA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TSLA ($695.2) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($419.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TSLA is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: TSLA is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (3.5x)


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Future Growth

How is Tesla forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 34 analysts?

Future Growth Score

6/6

Future Growth Score 6/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


24.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TSLA's forecast earnings growth (24.7% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: TSLA's earnings (24.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (13% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TSLA's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TSLA's revenue (20.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TSLA's revenue (20.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TSLA's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (28.7%)


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Past Performance

How has Tesla performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

6/6

Past Performance Score 6/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


76.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TSLA has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: TSLA's current net profit margins (13.5%) are higher than last year (3.1%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TSLA has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 76.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: TSLA's earnings growth over the past year (655.8%) exceeds its 5-year average (76.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: TSLA earnings growth over the past year (655.8%) exceeded the Auto industry 81%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: TSLA's Return on Equity (23.9%) is considered high.


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Financial Health

How is Tesla's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: TSLA's short term assets ($29.1B) exceed its short term liabilities ($21.5B).

Long Term Liabilities: TSLA's short term assets ($29.1B) exceed its long term liabilities ($9.2B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: TSLA has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: TSLA's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 133.9% to 9.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: TSLA's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (404.9%).

Interest Coverage: TSLA's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (39.2x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Tesla current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate TSLA's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate TSLA's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if TSLA's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if TSLA's dividend payments have been increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as TSLA has not reported any payouts.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Elon Musk (50 yo)

13.75yrs

Tenure

Mr. Elon R. Musk is a Co-Founder of Tesla, Inc. and serves as its Chief Executive Officer since October 2008 and Director since April 2004 and is Technoking of Tesla. Mr. Musk is the Chief Executive Office...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Insufficient data to establish whether Elon's total compensation is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in the US market.

Compensation vs Earnings: Elon's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: TSLA's management team is considered experienced (3.8 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: TSLA's board of directors are considered experienced (6.5 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: TSLA insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 7.6%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Tesla, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Tesla, Inc.
  • Ticker: TSLA
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 2003
  • Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
  • Sector: Automobiles
  • Implied Market Cap: US$720.499b
  • Shares outstanding: 1.04b
  • Website: https://www.tesla.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Tesla, Inc.
  • 13101 Tesla Road
  • Austin
  • Texas
  • 78725
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/07/06 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/07/06 00:00
Earnings2022/03/31
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.