Did Changing Sentiment Drive China XD Plastics's (NASDAQ:CXDC) Share Price Down A Painful 75%?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 05, 2020
NasdaqGM:CXDC

Every investor on earth makes bad calls sometimes. But you have a problem if you face massive losses more than once in a while. So consider, for a moment, the misfortune of China XD Plastics Company Limited (NASDAQ:CXDC) investors who have held the stock for three years as it declined a whopping 75%. That would certainly shake our confidence in the decision to own the stock. And over the last year the share price fell 52%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 35% in the last three months.

Check out our latest analysis for China XD Plastics

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

China XD Plastics saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 4.3% per year, over the last three years. This reduction in EPS is slower than the 37% annual reduction in the share price. So it's likely that the EPS decline has disappointed the market, leaving investors hesitant to buy. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 0.98.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NasdaqGM:CXDC Past and Future Earnings, March 5th 2020
NasdaqGM:CXDC Past and Future Earnings, March 5th 2020

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. This free interactive report on China XD Plastics's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

A Different Perspective

China XD Plastics shareholders are down 52% for the year, but the market itself is up 14%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 23% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 5 warning signs for China XD Plastics (3 are a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

China XD Plastics is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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