Did Changing Sentiment Drive Singapore Airlines’s Share Price Down By 12%?

Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that’s been the case for longer term Singapore Airlines Limited (SGX:C6L) shareholders, since the share price is down 12% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 26%.

See our latest analysis for Singapore Airlines

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it’s a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the three years that the share price fell, Singapore Airlines’s earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 17% each year. In comparison the 4.1% compound annual share price decline isn’t as bad as the EPS drop-off. So, despite the prior disappointment, shareholders must have some confidence the situation will improve, longer term.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

SGX:C6L Past and Future Earnings, February 28th 2019
SGX:C6L Past and Future Earnings, February 28th 2019

This free interactive report on Singapore Airlines’s earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Singapore Airlines, it has a TSR of -2.6% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 3.8% in the twelve months, Singapore Airlines shareholders did even worse, losing 6.0% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there’s a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn’t be so upset, since they would have made 2.9%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. Importantly, we haven’t analysed Singapore Airlines’s dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you’re thinking of buying.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on SG exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.