SGX:CSFU

Stock Analysis Report

Cromwell European Real Estate Investment Trust

Executive Summary

Cromwell European REIT is a real estate investment trust (“REIT”) with the principal investment strategy of investing, directly or indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate assets in Europe that are used primarily for office, light industrial / logistics, and retail purposes.

Rewards

Trading at 65.6% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 9.74% per year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 5.76% is not well covered by earnings



Snowflake Analysis

Second-rate dividend payer and slightly overvalued.

Share Price & News

How has Cromwell European Real Estate Investment Trust's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: CSFU has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-0.6%

CSFU

-0.3%

SG REITs

-1.4%

SG Market


1 Year Return

4.5%

CSFU

15.3%

SG REITs

0.7%

SG Market

Return vs Industry: CSFU underperformed the SG REITs industry which returned 16.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CSFU exceeded the SG Market which returned 2.1% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

CSFUIndustryMarket
7 Day-0.6%-0.3%-1.4%
30 Day1.2%3.3%0.3%
90 Day7.2%1.8%1.9%
1 Year12.3%4.5%22.4%15.3%4.8%0.7%
3 Yearn/a52.1%26.0%13.7%1.6%
5 Yearn/a59.3%15.9%11.5%-7.2%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Cromwell European Real Estate Investment Trust's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

No news available

Valuation

Is Cromwell European Real Estate Investment Trust undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: CSFU (SGD0.82) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SGD2.38)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CSFU is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: CSFU is poor value based on its PE Ratio (17.3x) compared to the REITs industry average (15.3x).

PE vs Market: CSFU is poor value based on its PE Ratio (17.3x) compared to the SG market (13.5x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: CSFU is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.8x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: CSFU is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (1.1x) compared to the SG REITs industry average (1x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Cromwell European Real Estate Investment Trust forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

9.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CSFU's forecast earnings growth (9.7% per year) is above the savings rate (1.8%).

Earnings vs Market: CSFU's earnings (9.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the SG market (6.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CSFU's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: CSFU's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-1.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CSFU's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-1.4% per year).


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CSFU's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (7.2%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Cromwell European Real Estate Investment Trust performed over the past 5 years?

4.5%

Historical Real Estate annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CSFU has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: Insufficient data to determine if CSFU's profit margins have improved over the past year.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: Unable to establish if CSFU's year-on-year earnings growth rate was positive over the past 5 years as it has been trading publicly for less than 3 years.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare CSFU's past year earnings growth to its 5-year average as it has been trading publicly for less than 3 years.

Earnings vs Industry: Insufficient data to determine if CSFU's earnings growth over the past year exceeded the REITs industry average.


Return on Equity

High ROE: CSFU's Return on Equity (5.6%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Cromwell European Real Estate Investment Trust's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)


Financial Position Analysis


Debt to Equity History and Analysis


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: CSFU has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: CSFU's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.2x debt).


Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: CSFU's level of assets compared to its equity is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if CSFU has a sufficient allowance for bad loans.

Low Risk Liabilities: CSFU reports no customer deposits, loans are made up entirely of externally borrowed funds.

Loan Level: Insufficient data to determine if CSFU has an acceptable proportion of non-loan assets held.

Low Risk Deposits: CSFU has advanced significantly more loans than the customer deposits it holds.

Level of Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if CSFU has an appropriate level of bad loans.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Cromwell European Real Estate Investment Trust's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

5.76%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company5.8%marketbottom25%2.5%markettop25%5.5%industryaverage5.1%forecastin3Years7.5%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: CSFU's dividend (5.76%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the SG market (2.5%).

High Dividend: CSFU's dividend (5.76%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the SG market (5.41%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: CSFU has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: CSFU has only been paying a dividend for 2 years, and since then payments have fallen.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (73%), CSFU's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: CSFU's dividends in 3 years are not forecast to be well covered by earnings (105.9% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Cromwell European Real Estate Investment Trust's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

1.3yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Simon Garing (50yo)

1.3yrs

Tenure

0

Mr. Simon Robert Garing has been Chief Executive Officer of Cromwell EREIT Management Pte. Ltd. at Cromwell European Real Estate Investment Trust since 2019. He serves as Non-Independent Executive Director ...


Management Age and Tenure

1.3yrs

Average Tenure

50yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: CSFU's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Age and Tenure

2.4yrs

Average Tenure

58yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: CSFU's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.4 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: CSFU insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

SellS$24,288,12314 Jan 20
Andrew Tan
EntityIndividual
Shares30,000,000
Max PriceS$0.81
SellS$1,884,44104 Dec 19
Yigang Tang
EntityIndividual
Shares2,380,600
Max PriceS$0.79
SellS$5,197,86220 Nov 19
Cromwell EReit Management Pte. Ltd
EntityCompany
Shares6,824,055
Max PriceS$0.76
SellS$2,158,61920 Nov 19
Cromwell Property Securities Limited
EntityCompany
Shares2,833,960
Max PriceS$0.76
SellS$10,028,42720 Nov 19
Cromwell Europe Limited
EntityCompany
Shares13,165,901
Max PriceS$0.76
SellS$144,12616 Oct 19
Yigang Tang
EntityIndividual
Shares186,400
Max PriceS$0.77
SellS$21,365,47224 Jun 19
Andrew Tan
EntityIndividual
Shares26,821,600
Max PriceS$0.80
BuyS$1,926,31831 May 19
Cromwell Europe Limited
EntityCompany
Shares2,540,900
Max PriceS$0.76
SellS$1,398,30924 May 19
Yigang Tang
EntityIndividual
Shares1,828,900
Max PriceS$0.77
BuyS$13,703,15602 Apr 19
Cromwell Property Securities Limited
EntityCompany
Shares17,994,999
Max PriceS$0.76
BuyS$13,679,32429 Mar 19
Cromwell Property Securities Limited
EntityCompany
Shares17,994,999
Max PriceS$0.76
SellS$13,679,32429 Mar 19
Cromwell EReit Management Pte. Ltd
EntityCompany
Shares17,994,999
Max PriceS$0.76
SellS$151,683,80007 Feb 19
UBS Asset Management
EntityCompany
Shares216,338,012
Max PriceS$0.70
BuyS$153,316,48531 Jan 19
UBS Asset Management
EntityCompany
Shares217,747,540
Max PriceS$0.70
BuyS$22,849,48529 Jan 19
Yigang Tang
EntityIndividual
Shares32,500,000
Max PriceS$0.70
BuyS$22,849,48529 Jan 19
Celine Tang
EntityIndividual
Shares32,500,000
Max PriceS$0.70
SellS$151,509,09929 Jan 19
Cerberus Capital Management, L.P.
EntityCompany
Shares217,747,540
Max PriceS$0.70

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Insufficient data to determine if shareholders have been diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • Thierry Leleu (50yo)

    Chief Investment Officer of Cromwell EREIT Management Pte Ltd

    • Shane Peter Hagan (53yo)

      Chief Financial Officer of Cromwell EREIT Management Pte Ltd

      • Tenure: 0.7yrs
    • Simon Garing (50yo)

      CEO & Executive Director of Cromwell EREIT Management Pte. Ltd.

      • Tenure: 1.3yrs
    • Christina Tham (49yo)

      Head of Legal

      • Tenure: 1.6yrs
    • Elena Arabadjieva (47yo)

      COO & Head of Investor Relations of Cromwell EREIT Management Pte Ltd

      • Tenure: 1.3yrs
    • Yi Kim

      Company Secretary of Cromwell EREIT Management Pte Ltd


      Board Members

      • Swe Guan Lim (65yo)

        Chairman of Cromwell EREIT Management Pte Ltd

        • Paul Weightman (58yo)

          Non-Independent Non-Executive Director of Cromwell EREIT Management Pte Ltd

          • Tenure: 3yrs
        • Christian Delaire (52yo)

          Independent Non-Executive Director of Cromwell Ereit Management Pte. Ltd

          • Tenure: 2.4yrs
        • Simon Garing (50yo)

          CEO & Executive Director of Cromwell EREIT Management Pte. Ltd.

          • Tenure: 1.3yrs
        • Ai Lian Fang (69yo)

          Independent Non-Executive Director of Cromwell EREIT Management Pte Ltd

          Company Information

          Cromwell European Real Estate Investment Trust's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


          Key Information

          • Name: Cromwell European Real Estate Investment Trust
          • Ticker: CSFU
          • Exchange: SGX
          • Founded: 2017
          • Industry: Diversified REITs
          • Sector: Real Estate
          • Market Cap: €1.389b
          • Listing Market Cap: €2.069b
          • Shares outstanding: 2.55b
          • Website: https://www.cromwelleuropeanreit.com.sg

          Number of Employees


          Location

          • Cromwell European Real Estate Investment Trust
          • 50 Collyer Quay
          • No. 07-02, OUE Bayfront
          • Singapore
          • 49321
          • Singapore

          Listings

          TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
          CNNUSGX (Singapore Exchange)YesUnitsSGEURDec 2017
          CSFUSGX (Singapore Exchange)YesUnitsSGSGDDec 2017

          Biography

          Cromwell European REIT is a real estate investment trust (“REIT”) with the principal investment strategy of investing, directly or indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate assets in Europe that are used primarily for office, light industrial / logistics, and retail purposes. With a portfolio of 102 properties as at 12 November 2019 in or close to major gateway cities in Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands as well as Poland, and a balanced focus on the office and light industrial / logistics sectors, it is also the first REIT with a diversified Pan-European portfolio to be listed on Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited. As at 30 September 2019, CEREIT’s portfolio has an aggregate lettable area of approximately 1.5 million sq m with close to 1,000 tenant-customers and a WALE profile of around 4.6 years. Comprising primarily freehold or ongoing leasehold assets, the portfolio has an appraised value of approximately €2,082 million as at 30 September 2019. CEREIT is managed by Cromwell EREIT Management Pte. Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of CEREIT’s sponsor, Cromwell Property Group16, a real estate investor and manager with operations in 15 countries, listed on the Australian Securities Exchange Ltd. 


          Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

          All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
          DataLast Updated (UTC time)
          Company Analysis2020/01/26 13:23
          End of Day Share Price2020/01/23 00:00
          Earnings2019/09/30
          Annual Earnings2018/12/31


          Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.