Hiap Seng Industries Limited's (SGX:1L2) 329% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Despite an already strong run, Hiap Seng Industries Limited (SGX:1L2) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 329% in the last thirty days. This latest share price bounce rounds out a remarkable 400% gain over the last twelve months.

Since its price has surged higher, Hiap Seng Industries' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.7x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Singapore, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 13x and even P/E's below 8x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

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For instance, Hiap Seng Industries' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Hiap Seng Industries

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Hiap Seng Industries, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Hiap Seng Industries would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 73%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 93% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 13% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that Hiap Seng Industries' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

The strong share price surge has got Hiap Seng Industries' P/E rushing to great heights as well. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Hiap Seng Industries revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 4 warning signs for Hiap Seng Industries (3 are concerning!) that we have uncovered.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.