OM:NOBINA

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Nobina AB (publ), through its subsidiaries, provides public transportation services in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland.


Snowflake Analysis

Fair value with moderate growth potential.

Share Price & News

How has Nobina's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: NOBINA's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

4.2%

NOBINA

-5.6%

SE Transportation

-1.6%

SE Market


1 Year Return

-15.3%

NOBINA

-42.0%

SE Transportation

-12.2%

SE Market

Return vs Industry: NOBINA exceeded the Swedish Transportation industry which returned -41.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NOBINA matched the Swedish Market which returned -11.6% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

NOBINAIndustryMarket
7 Day4.2%-5.6%-1.6%
30 Day-25.7%-33.5%-18.7%
90 Day-18.1%-42.3%-22.6%
1 Year-9.3%-15.3%-39.2%-42.0%-10.0%-12.2%
3 Year23.4%2.6%-28.8%-36.9%0.7%-13.9%
5 Yearn/a-17.5%-31.4%6.6%-15.5%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Nobina's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Nobina undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

25.4%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: NOBINA (SEK55.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK72.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NOBINA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: NOBINA is poor value based on its PE Ratio (14.7x) compared to the Transportation industry average (8.8x).

PE vs Market: NOBINA is good value based on its PE Ratio (14.7x) compared to the Swedish market (14.8x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: NOBINA is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.5x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: NOBINA is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (3.5x) compared to the XE Transportation industry average (1.2x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Nobina forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

10.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NOBINA's forecast earnings growth (10.1% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.4%).

Earnings vs Market: NOBINA's earnings (10.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Swedish market (8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: NOBINA's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: NOBINA's revenue (3.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Swedish market (4.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NOBINA's revenue (3.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NOBINA's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (27.6%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Nobina performed over the past 5 years?

28.1%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NOBINA has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: NOBINA's current net profit margins (3.1%) are lower than last year (3.6%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NOBINA's earnings have grown significantly by 28.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: NOBINA's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: NOBINA had negative earnings growth (-2.1%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Transportation industry average (0.7%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst NOBINA's Return on Equity (23.63%) is high, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Nobina's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NOBINA's short term assets (SEK1.3B) do not cover its short term liabilities (SEK2.8B).

Long Term Liabilities: NOBINA's short term assets (SEK1.3B) do not cover its long term liabilities (SEK5.1B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NOBINA's debt to equity ratio (143.5%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: NOBINA's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 179.6% to 143.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: NOBINA's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (70%).

Interest Coverage: NOBINA's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (4.5x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: NOBINA has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: NOBINA's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.6x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Nobina's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

7.19%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: NOBINA's dividend (6.85%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (2.05%).

High Dividend: NOBINA's dividend (6.85%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (6.28%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, NOBINA has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: NOBINA's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 4 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its high payout ratio (100.9%), NOBINA's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: NOBINA's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (88.2% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Ros Rosén (57yo)

2.83s

Tenure

kr11,100,000

Compensation

Mr. Magnus Rosén, also known as Ros, M.Sc., MBA, has been Chief Executive Officer and President at Nobina AB since June 1, 2017. Mr. Rosén serves as Senior Vice President of Scandinavia of Rakentajain Kone ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Ros's total compensation ($USD1.11M) is above average for companies of similar size in the Swedish market ($USD662.45K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Ros's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Magnus Rosén
President & CEO2.83yrskr11.10m0.046% SEK2.1m
Pernilla Walfridsson
Chief Financial Officer0.50yrno datano data
Mattias Gelinder
Head of Treasury & Investor Relationsno datano datano data
Martin Pagrotsky
General Counsel & Chief Compliance Officer14.25yrsno data0.078% SEK3.5m
David Erixon
Head of Communicationsno datano datano data
Jonas Kempe
Marketing Director of Business to Businessno datano datano data
Jenny Lundmark
HR Director1yrno datano data
Jan Bosaeus
Deputy CEO & VP1.58yrsno data0.12% SEK5.6m
Henrik Dagnäs
Managing Director of Nobina Sverige AB5.42yrsno data0.018% SEK832.7k
Niels Nielsen
Managing Director of Nobina Danmark A/S9.25yrsno data0.092% SEK4.2m

2.8yrs

Average Tenure

49yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: NOBINA's management team is considered experienced (2.8 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
John Allkins
Independent Director6.92yrskr500.00k0.064% SEK2.9m
Graham Oldroyd
Independent Director6.25yrskr500.00k0.040% SEK1.8m
Jan Sjöqvist
Independent Chairman of the Board15.25yrskr900.00k0.22% SEK10.2m
Liselott Kilaas
Independent Director2.92yrskr500.00kno data
Bertil Persson
Independent Director1.92yrskr500.00kno data
Monica Lingegård
Independent Director2.92yrskr500.00kno data
Johan Bygge
Vice Chairman0.92yrno datano data

2.9yrs

Average Tenure

60yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: NOBINA's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.9 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: NOBINA insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Nobina AB (publ)'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Nobina AB (publ)
  • Ticker: NOBINA
  • Exchange: OM
  • Founded: 1911
  • Industry: Trucking
  • Sector: Transportation
  • Market Cap: kr4.553b
  • Shares outstanding: 86.15m
  • Website: https://www.nobina.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Nobina AB (publ)
  • Armégatan 38
  • Solna
  • Stockholm County
  • 171 71
  • Sweden

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
NOBINAOM (OMX Nordic Exchange Stockholm)Ordinary SharesSESEKNo data
NOBINAOM (OMX Nordic Exchange Stockholm)YesOrdinary SharesSESEKMar 2015
NOBINsBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesOrdinary SharesGBSEKMar 2015
0R8OLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesGBSEKMar 2015
203DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesOrdinary SharesDEEURMar 2015

Biography

Nobina AB (publ), through its subsidiaries, provides public transportation services in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland. The company offers scheduled and express bus services. It has a fleet of approximately 3,600 buses. Nobina AB (publ) was founded in 1911 and is headquartered in Solna, Sweden. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/04/02 23:40
End of Day Share Price2020/04/02 00:00
Earnings2019/11/30
Annual Earnings2019/02/28


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.